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方正证券:维持亚盛医药-B“强烈推荐”评级 公司赴美上市进一步打通美国融资渠道

Fangzheng Securities: Maintain "Strong Buy" rating for ASCENTAGE-B. The company goes public in the USA, further opening up financing channels in the USA.

Sina Hong Kong stocks ·  Jan 27 02:57

On January 24, Ascentage-B (06855) successfully listed on Nasdaq, raising approximately $0.126 billion in capital. This further opened up financing channels in the USA, providing new funding support and more resources and certainty for subsequent product development, expected to accelerate the global commercialization progress of Olverembatinib and the research and development progress of other pipelines. Projected revenue for the company in FY24-26 is expected to be 0.908/0.596/2.63 billion yuan, with year-on-year growths of 303.62%, -34.45%, and 341.68%, respectively. The corresponding net income attributable to shareholders in FY24-26 is projected to be -0.273/-0.657/1.194 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growths of 70.56%, -141.17%, and 281.68%, respectively, maintaining a "strong buy" rating.

The main viewpoints of Founder Securities are as follows:

Event: ASCENTAGE officially listed on the Nasdaq in the USA on January 24, 2025, with the stock code AAPG. The company's listing price was set at $17.25 per share, issuing 7.325 million shares and raising a total of $0.126 billion.

The successful listing of ASCENTAGE indicates that its innovative capabilities and market potential in the global medical field have been recognized by the international Capital Markets.

The company is positioned for global development, focusing on the design and R&D of innovative drugs with 'First-in-Class' or 'Best-in-Class' potential to meet the unmet medical needs of patients worldwide. Currently, the company has a high-barrier technology platform for the design of protein-protein interaction targeted drugs, standing at the forefront globally in the development of new drugs in the apoptosis pathway, such as Bcl-2, IAP, and MDM2-p53.

Ascentage's core product, Nalidixic acid, has been approved for sale in China and is a homegrown innovative drug with BIC potential. Its clinical progress has been selected for oral reports at the ASH annual meeting for seven consecutive years. Additionally, various clinical advancements promoted by the company have been showcased at multiple international academic conferences in 2024, including the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting, the European Hematology Association Annual Meeting (EHA2024), and the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting. The company has a total of 4 new drugs under research, obtaining 16 FDA designations and 1 EU orphan drug designation, along with 2 FDA fast track designations and 2 FDA rare pediatric disease designations.

In June 2024, Ascentage signed an exclusive option agreement worth up to $1.3 billion with Takeda Pharmaceutical for Nalidixic acid, granting Takeda the rights to develop and commercialize Nalidixic acid globally (excluding China). Additionally, Takeda invested $75 million in Ascentage, acquiring a 7.73% stake, becoming the second largest shareholder after the founding team of Ascentage.

This initiative will help ASCENTAGE further widen its financing channels and enhance its financial strength, providing more funding support for future research, development, market expansion, and commercialization activities.

The company has raised approximately 0.126 billion USD by listing on the US stock market, further opening up financing channels in the USA, gaining new funding support, providing more resources and certainty for future product development, and is expected to accelerate the global commercialization progress of Acalbrutinib and the研发进度 of other pipelines.

Overseas, Nalik's treatment for CML is expected to complete the enrollment of the Phase III clinical trial POLARIS-2 in the USA by 2025 and submit a new drug application in 2026, with the earliest approval expected in 2026-2027. APG-2575 is the second in the world and the first in China to enter pivotal registration clinical trials as a selective Bcl-2 inhibitor. With its BIC potential, it is expected to surpass AbbVie's Venetoclax and has the potential for significant overseas business development. APG-2575 is expected to be launched for the treatment of R/R CLL/SLL in 2025, with second-line treatment for CLL anticipated to launch in the USA by 2027-2028; first-line treatment for AML and first-line treatment for MDS are expected to be launched domestically in 2028, while first-line treatment for MDS is anticipated to launch in the USA in 2028-2029, with a total peak sales estimated to reach 9.309 billion yuan RMB.

Risk warning:

Risks of clinical results not meeting expectations, risks of product sales falling short of expectations, risks of milestone revenue not meeting expectations, risks of changes in industry policies, and other systemic risks, etc.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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