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The Three-year Earnings Decline Has Likely Contributed ToAmbarella's (NASDAQ:AMBA) Shareholders Losses of 48% Over That Period

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 28 11:29

While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Ambarella, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMBA) share price up 19% in a single quarter. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. In fact, the share price is down 48% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

Given that Ambarella didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

Over the last three years, Ambarella's revenue dropped 15% per year. That means its revenue trend is very weak compared to other loss making companies. On the face of it we'd posit the share price fall of 14% compound, over three years is well justified by the fundamental deterioration. The key question now is whether the company has the capacity to fund itself to profitability, without more cash. Of course, it is possible for businesses to bounce back from a revenue drop - but we'd want to see that before getting interested.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

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NasdaqGS:AMBA Earnings and Revenue Growth January 28th 2025

Ambarella is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Ambarella shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 30% over the last year. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 4% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Ambarella , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

But note: Ambarella may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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