"if you interpret inflation as demand, in fact, the global demand curve has been trading since April last year, but economic behavior does not seem to have recovered. This leads to a result: the demand curve recovers quickly, but the supply curve lags behind. "

"in fact, after careful observation, it is not difficult to find that in the first quarter of this year, the signs of the combination of our bond market, equity market, and commodity market are very obvious. As we just said, this actually involves a huge problem, that is, the risk of the supply chain, and the global epidemic has caused a huge supply chain mismatch. "

"2012 is the total demand push, 2008, 2013 inflation, so that investment overcapacity, resulting in natural high profits and high output, and finally hit out on the supply side, prices fall, and then eliminate capacity deflation. This is a normal inflation process. This epidemic, from the cliff of the epidemic to the delay of policy, is normal, but after November, the risks outweigh the benefits. "

"I think there are basically major risks in the supply chain right now. The current situation of Cooper copper is that the inventory is low, the copper mine cannot be opened, and the liquidity is very excess, so it is easy to have the problem of having nothing to do with him, which is the same as iron ore, which is very embarrassing. . But the rest, probably more than 70%, is the risk of supply. "

"all the risks are outside this year, the first is exposure. Now the upstream supply of domestic commodities is under great pressure, the supply exposure is completely outside, and the second is liquidity. I think the Fed is a huge risk this year. Its liquidity fist may come back faster than expected, the volatility of the US market will be quickly magnified, then our external risk is very large. "

"it can also be seen from the long-term structure of crude oil that the excessive shortage of supply has been alleviated and the space for oil has been kept in a relatively comfortable state."

"to a large extent, what aluminum and copper are talking about. He is telling the story of production restrictions in China. Copper is very simple, its low inventory upstream copper mine cannot be opened, and the liquidity is extremely superfluous. in fact, you have already seen that Wall Street has a big shadow in this copper. I estimate that in less than half a year or a year, you may find that some financial institutions on Wall Street actually have a shadow in this. "

"in fact, how to define copper below 8000 before January is normal. We can attribute everything to fundamentals, but more than 8000 of copper.As a matter of fact, you should be careful, it may not be the story of the fundamentals.。”

"in fact, when you do raise interest rates and shrink the table, gold falls to the bottom. So maybe you can't measure medium-and long-term expectations by the short-end behavior of raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet, so you know why gold is an early-reacting asset.

It actually tells us what the biggest risk is this year, and our biggest risk this year is the nominal interest rate in real interest rates, that is, the behavior of the Federal Reserve. Second, our biggest risk this year is whether there is real inflation that is sustainable, or whether we say that the inflation reflected in the front begins to react later, and this kind of demand can't keep up, but the price is rising. "

"the center of gravity of a commodity is determined by a long supply-side investment cycle, and this thing has indeed reached a stage of uplift, there is no denying it. However, the mismatch of this epidemic is actually a very big factor in the short-and medium-term price changes. Once it has been alleviated, it is normal for the price to be revised. "

"the price of a commodity is earlier than that of commodity stocks when it starts. But at the peak, equity is earlier than commodity prices. Why? Because it is very simple or the same sentence, I do not know how much the commodity price is at the bottom, so you will find that, for example, in the case of copper, its fundamentals do not support its decline, but this structure has begun to weaken. So you can see from the absolute price of copper, for example, 9000 yuan begins to trade sideways, but you will find that your copper-related stocks actually fall first. "

On May 11, in a live broadcast of Guotai Junan's "Yan Ming Night talk" with the theme of "Commodities and Stock Investment under inflation expectations", Fu Peng, chief economist of Northeast Securities, had a dialogue with Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Research Institute, and made the above judgment.

The following is the essence of the investment exercise book to share with you:

Huang Yanming: what is the main impact on the economy under the epidemic?

Supply can't keep up with demand.

Fu Peng: if you interpret inflation as demand, in fact, the global demand curve has been trading since April last year, but economic behavior does not seem to have recovered. For example, employment, transportation, and consumption do not seem to have recovered, but demand is the first to recover, because people do not need to work, but can consume durable goods, which leads to a result: the demand curve recovers very quickly, but the supply curve can not keep up.

Upstream monopoly investment mismatches supply

In 2012 and 2013, including the following years, upstream investment itself has become a monopoly, that is, in the wave of 2014 and 2015, you will find that most of our upstream industrial chain has completed the so-called elimination mechanism. what should disappear has disappeared, and it has also formed a relative monopoly, as well as overseas.

After the monopoly, it also leads to a problem, that is, investment. The investment cycle is already slower than the demand cycle, and as a result of this epidemic, supply does not come out, and after the epidemic, there will be an obvious supply mismatch.

Overseas shocks bring risks to China's supply side.

So from the beginning to November last year, you can see that there is really no strong stimulus in China this time, and the policy is very different from that in 2008. In 2008, China's fiscal policy, monetary policy and administrative policy strongly stimulated aggregate demand, so until 2012, it brought a sense of inflation to the world.

But this time, China is actually more influenced by overseas.

As we all know, China has been hit by the sudden outbreak of the epidemic and does not need to do anything. As long as everyone is at home, after the epidemic is under control, the aggregate demand curve will naturally recover.

However, the fiscal policy subsidies in Europe and the United States have led to the recovery of the aggregate demand curve, which is the biggest global problem, and it also has an impact on China's recovery. For example, the fiscal and monetary policies of the United States are directly reflected in China's exports.

The increase in China's foreign trade orders last year reflected the recovery of global aggregate demand.Since November last year, especially after the first quarter of this year, it has obviously brought risks to the supply side of China.Causing problems on the supply side. Our National standing Committee, the Financial Stability Board and the National Development and Reform Commission have also repeatedly stressed that there is something wrong with the supply chain.

Global epidemic causes huge supply chain mismatch

If other risks are added on the supply side, such as the overall diplomatic risks of carbon neutralization and Sino-Australian conflict, the already unbalanced supply chain will become even more unbalanced. In other words, you can't eat downstream. In fact, I don't care. What I care more about is that my pricing power is increasing. At this time, the whole economy below you is under pressure.

In fact, after careful observation, it is not difficult to find that in the first quarter of this year, the signs of the combination of our bond market, equity market, and commodity market are very obvious. As we just said, this actually involves a huge problem, that is, the risk of the supply chain, and the global epidemic has caused a huge supply chain mismatch.

What is a supply chain mismatch? in my words, there have been cycles of capacity loss and investment loss in 2015 and 2016, and this epidemic has become an incentive for all mismatches. In fact, this is the whole first or second quarter. I think if you look at the goods, one of the most troublesome places.

So you will feel that starting from the first and second quarters, the prices of the more tight things in the global supply chain began to rise in an all-round way. I believe we all start from iron ore and coal to feel that there is something wrong with the global supply chain, and then feel it layer by layer. This level is the difference between this epidemic and 2008 in the same meso-environment.

It was the total demand push in 2012 and inflation in 2008 and 2013, which led to investment overcapacity, resulting in natural high profits and high output, which finally came out on the supply side, prices fell, and then capacity deflation was eliminated. This is a normal inflation process.

This epidemic, from the cliff of the epidemic to the delay of policy, is normal, but after November last year, the risks outweigh the benefits.

Huang Yanming: can you talk about some views on domestic inflation and policy?

All the risk points this year are not in China:

With supply exposure, the Fed is a huge risk.

Fu Peng: all the risk points in China this year are not at home. There will be no obvious changes in domestic policy, so there is not much room for domestic interest rates and central bank policies. Domestic bonds have actually told the answer in advance.

In fact, all the risks are out there this year.

The first is the exposure. At present, the upstream supply pressure of domestic commodities is very great, and the supply exposure is completely outside, so this epidemic has actually done great harm to us.

The second is liquidity. I think the Federal Reserve is a huge risk this year. In the next few months, employment in the United States will recover faster than we thought, because the current employment in the United States is a problem caused by supply mismatch. In the middle of this year, the Federal Reserve will have a very great pressure. Its liquidity fist may be recovered faster than expected, and the volatility of the US market will be quickly magnified. Then we have a great external risk.

I am more worried that the domestic market may be affected by these factors, and there may still be big pits this year.

Q: what do you think are the core factors driving global commodity prices recently? Will global commodity prices continue to rise in the next stage? Or from your point of view, is there any value for investment in copper, oil and other commodities around the world?

There is still room for crude oil, copper is in an awkward position.

The oil was good in March this year, and the United States put some pressure on Saudi Arabia, so Saudi Arabia further tightened its supply in November last year and is now gradually releasing it out. It can also be seen from the long-term structure of crude oil that the excessive shortage of supply has been alleviated and the space for oil has been kept in a relatively comfortable state.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve meetings in January and March are telling you about supply chain problems, and at some meetings of China's Financial Stability Board, National standing Committee and National Development and Reform Commission, everyone is talking about the supply chain. I think there are basically major risks in the supply chain right now.

The current situation of Cooper copper is that the inventory is low, the copper mine cannot be opened, and the liquidity is very excess, so it is easy to have the problem of nothing to do with him, which is the same as iron ore, which is very embarrassing. So the answer is actually very clear, because there were more expected purchases last year, and more actually happened, so it has already provided such an effect on prices. But the rest, probably more than 70%, is the risk of supply.

Huang Yanming: talk about non-ferrous metals?

Behind the excitement of copper is the shadow of Wall Street.

First of all, most of the non-ferrous metals, such as nickel or zinc, are normal. This year, here's a hint of what two varieties, aluminum and copper, are talking about to a large extent. He is telling the story of production restrictions in China.

Well, the copper is very simple, the low-inventory upstream copper mine cannot be opened, and the liquidity is extremely superfluous. in fact, you have already seen that Wall Street has a big shadow in this copper. I estimate that it will take less than half a year or a year. You may only find that some financial institutions on Wall Street actually have a shadow in this.

Of course, when we say that flies do not bite seamless eggs, first of all, there must be seams. This seam is all the conditions. You see, there is a supply problem, there is a problem in the upstream mine, there is a problem in the middle inventory, and the liquidity is very good. Then China's carbon peak, carbon emissions, new energy, and the story is very good. Put this thing together, of course, it is easy to enter the excited state that we say everyone looks like now.

Pay attention to the price of copper above 8000

May no longer be a fundamental story.

In fact, how to define that copper below 8000 before January is normal, and everything can be attributed to fundamentals, but more than 8000 of copper is actually not too much of this story. Let me cite a few simple data from the trading market. You can take a look at it. Comparison of fundamentals may be more important. More than 8000 of LME's Cooper copper is reduced.

Then in the tclc (processing cost), that is, when the upstream mines are very tight, the copper in LME is about a few positions when the back, which is more than 60 US dollars, reached 10,000 some time ago, you notice that the backwardation has probably dropped to a negative number, which should be-3 or-4 on May 10.

That is to tell you again from the structure, the driving force of the squeeze is weakening. if you look at China, it is more obvious that China's inventory did not fall when it was time to fall, in fact, it also reflects the problem of downstream demand. You simply understand, demand this position, and then your squeeze, all these factors above 8000 US dollars, does not reflect the story of these fundamentals that we are talking about now. So I can only say that the price change is above this, in fact, we should be careful, it may not be a fundamental story.

Huang Yanming: can you talk about gold?

The best market for gold is over.

Gold is our medium-and long-term real interest rate, which has risen since Powell spoke in August last year. So at that time I said that 2000 +, the best time of this round of gold, was over with game over. This is equivalent to our wave of US $1920 in 2012. For us, real interest rates fell to the lowest in August last year when real interest rates fell to the lowest in August last year, and then began the pricing Fed's later tightening, so the entire bond yield curve has changed.

Therefore, for gold, the high point of the big market has already come out a long time ago, that is, the 2000 yen in August last year. We are more concerned about your follow-up course. In fact, the logic from 2012 to 2014 is the same, that is to say, how the gold bond yield curve changes in the process of Fed contraction, interest rate hike and contraction. This is probably the case.

Us debt expectations slow, inflation expectations appear to be strongerCaused the gold to rebound in April.

In April, as we just said, first, the data from the United States slightly slowed down the expectations of the entire US debt.

The second is that inflation expectations are getting stronger, so the real interest rate of gold has eased a little bit, and gold has rebounded, that's all. So for us, you can ignore the fluctuations in the middle.

Where is the low point of the gold we are looking for?

What is more critical now is that in terms of the big market, we say that from 1100 in 18 years to 2000 yen in August last year, this round of gold rally brought about by the decline in medium-and long-term real interest rates is over.Now, where exactly is the low point we're looking for? That is, to what extent the medium and long end of this round of real interest rates can rise, then stop, the short end begins to rise, and interest rates cannot be raised, then the corresponding gold low can be found.。

As for it is in 1600 1650, we do not have to guess, from a trader's point of view can not guess, you can only say that up to that time, the bond yield curve is still accelerating steep, once we start to flattening, probably already out of the gold low.

Of all the assets, gold is the first to respond to changes in interest rates.

Gold actually responds to changes in interest rates earlier than all our assets. Looking back, gold peaked and fell first in 12 years in 11 years, and then other assets continued to achieve this point at that time.

Gold fell to the bottom when it actually raised interest rates and contracted the table.

In fact, because gold is the middle and long end of the whole bond, there is a misunderstanding among many people here, saying that the Federal Reserve is still expanding its table and still buying bonds, but from the perspective of bonds, the Fed is still buying bonds. But gold is the expectation of the long end. In fact, you will find that it has been 14 years since Professor Bernanke gave Yellen an interest rate increase and contraction table, just like at that time. But 14-year gold is 1000, 1200, 1300.

When Bernanke spoke at the end of the year for 12 years, when he gave everyone's expectation of contraction, gold was 1920, so in fact, when you did raise interest rates and shrink the table, gold fell to the bottom. So maybe you can't measure medium-and long-term expectations by the short-end behavior of raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet, so you know why gold is an early-reacting asset.

The biggest risk this year lies in Fed action and whether there is real sustainable inflation.

So it actually tells us what the biggest risk is this year, and our biggest risk this year is the nominal interest rate in the real interest rate, that is, the behavior of the Federal Reserve.

Second, our biggest risk this year is whether there is sustainable real inflation, or if we say that the inflation reflected in the previous response begins to react later, this kind of demand can not keep up, but the price is constantly rising. so in fact, the real risk this year has been made very clear to us since January. Gold is already a relatively clear asset to take the lead here.

Huang Yanming: to sum up, what are the basic strategies or views on commodity investment in the next stage?。

Commodity appreciation, short-term price correction and liquidity have an impact on prices

With regard to commodities, the upstream investment cycle is a big problem, and the price is a dynamic thing. If you want something worth 5000 yuan to 8000 yuan, he has already priced this thing. For us, the center of gravity of the commodity is determined by the long supply-side investment cycle, and this thing has indeed reached a stage of uplift, there is no denying it.

The second is about several characteristics of this year, in addition to medium-and long-term factors, it only affects the rise of our center of gravity, but in the short-and medium-term price changes, the mismatch of this epidemic is actually a very big factor.

Once it has been alleviated, the price correction is also normal. You should not understand that its fundamentals, such as the above supply investment cycle, can support this price never to fall. This is not the case. What it supports is that your entire center of gravity is going up. There is nothing wrong with this.

Well, in fact, this short-term mismatch should be paid close attention to, when it will be corrected to a certain extent.

The second is that there are also a lot of liquidity problems hidden in it, which also need to be paid close attention to.

To distinguish the story about the investment cycle in our fundamentals, it supports the rise of our medium-and long-term prices, that is to say, its center of gravity goes up, but your short-cycle mismatch is the factor that affects the current medium-and short-cycle changes in our prices. Liquidity affects our extent. In fact, if you put these three items together, you probably have a picture in mind.

Cyclical stocks have a profit cycle, but no valuation cycle

Second, with regard to cyclical stocks, I would like to say that there is a price before 2007 and a valuation before 2008, which has something to do with the rapid development of the industrial chain of China's economy. But after 2008, in fact, this part of the industry has entered the state of middle-aged and elderly, the typical characteristic of the state of middle-aged and elderly is to enter the process of a large number of elimination.

So what I said just now is actually quite right. The 12-year one actually delayed the strong stimulating demand from 2009 to 12, and actually delayed such an adjustment of the entire industrial chain.

Originally, in theory, it should be from 2008 to 2014, so the whole process is a process of elimination, acquisition, M & An integration and oligopoly of an industrial chain.

In fact, it should be said that there is a lot of pressure at home, for example, by 14 and 15 years, you can see that a large number of bankruptcy debts have actually begun to appear upstream, so we have successfully carried out supply-side reform in 16 years. Administrative means are used to accelerate the integration of such an industrial chain. This is what we saw in the last round of this thing integration.

But after the integration, whether the industry is in the adolescence of global aggregate demand expansion, obviously not. So in principle, you can only say that he belongs to the age of 60 and 50 and has been cleaned up for a while, which, in my words, is a profit cycle, but there is still no valuation cycle.

Commodity prices start earlier than commodity stocks.

But at the peak, cyclical commodity stocks react earlier than commodity prices.

With regard to the equity side that we are talking about is cyclical stocks, as far as I understand, what is the price of a trader to this thing?

Commodity prices start earlier than commodity stocks, the reason is actually very simple, most of these fund managers who do allocation cycle category, actually do not know how to observe the industrial chain, it is not the people in the industrial chain, so in the early commodity prices began to change, in fact, the eyes did not see, what do you think most of the fund equivalent is?

Waiting for our researchers to start to pay attention to the price, they see the price skyrocketing, then go to the report, and then go to find the investment target, so it must be slower than the price response of this commodity.

But at the peak, equity is earlier than commodity prices. Why? Because it is very simple or the same sentence, I do not know how much the commodity price is at the bottom, so you will find that, for example, in the case of copper, its fundamentals do not support its decline, but this structure has begun to weaken. So you can see from the absolute price of copper, for example, 9000 yuan begins to trade sideways, but you will find that your copper-related stocks actually fall first, why is there such an elastic relationship?

In fact, you understand it from the trader's point of view, that is to say, as soon as I see that the copper price does not rise, no matter what the factors are, I will level it first and then ask, so you will find that even if your copper price goes up again for a period of time, I will copy it at the back and make it up to the point of view.

You will find that, especially gold stocks, and then when you work on copper stocks, you find that you all have such a habit. In fact, I think there are totally two types of assets, traders on both sides. His trading behavior sometimes has a great impact on it. In fact, it deserves everyone's attention.

The reaction of gold and gold stocks also has a time lag, which can be used.

For example, take a simple example, I found that from our point of view, for example, I know gold very well. I may perceive the turning point of the market price earlier than most people in the big market. Whether it is the turning point of the rise or the turning point of the turning point, at this time you will find that most people in the market do not pay attention to it. At this time, you can rest assured that gold may have quietly begun to move. But gold stocks do not necessarily move, there is an obvious time difference at this time.

This time gap, in my words, is that traders of different assets actually have differences in the information dimension, so you can even make full use of such a time difference.

Of course, in this part of the country, what is a very popular practice for this generation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang? If we engage in commodities on the one hand and rights and interests on the other, generally speaking, we will get the goods out first, and the price will go up sharply. When one or two, the commodity stocks on the right will be ambushed and started at the same time, so this routine actually takes advantage of such a time difference.