Although India is attracting global attention because of the severe epidemic, this has not undermined the confidence of overseas investors, some of whom are betting on a strong rebound in the Indian economy.
BlackRock plans to take advantage of the weakness of the rupee to moderately increase its long position, while GW&K Investment Management increased its holdings after the recent sell-off. Invesco Hong Kong Limited and Odil favor bonds related to sustainable investment and renewable energy in India.
Portfolio managers are concerned about the long-term growth prospects of the Indian economy, and consumption is expected to boost India's economic recovery once the epidemic crisis is over. Despite the recent outbreak in India, the limited outflow of funds from the stock market and the rebound of the rupee are evidence of investor confidence in the South Asian economy.
Tom Marcy (Tom Masi) and Nuno Fernandez (Nuno Fernandes), portfolio managers at GW&K Investment Management, said:
"the second wave of economic growth will slow in 2021, but this year's growth will be very strong and the long-term outlook is quite optimistic. Short-term investors will be forced to exit, while long-term investors will seize this opportunity. "
India's s & p BSE Sensex index has fallen about 4 per cent from its peak in mid-February, outperforming the MSCI Asia pacific index, which has fallen more than 7 per cent.
In April, the Global Fund withdrew $1.5 billion from the Indian stock market, compared with $8.4 billion at the time of the epidemic in March 2020. Both Amundi SA and Principal Global Investors LLC have increased their holdings in Indian stocks.
Jeff Kilkenny, portfolio manager of Principal Global Securities, said:
The Indian stock market has several structural growth opportunities that we do not expect to change significantly as a result of the current surge in infections. "
Infrastructure, personal mobility and insurance are all attractive sectors, he adds.
Investors are also bullish on the rupee. In May, the rupee rebounded from a sharp fall in April to become Asia's best-performing currency. BlackRock expects the rupee to continue to be supported as India's economic slowdown shrinks imports and helps boost the current account balance.
However, the deterioration of the epidemic could change the situation. Morninglight took a cautious stance and shorted the Indian rupee.
Eva Sun-Wai, manager of Chenguang Fund, said:
After the outbreak in India in April, the period of sharp correction of the dollar against the rupee may have passed, and the negative news may have been digested by the market. Having said that, I am not keen to return to the Indian market, because novel coronavirus has a high probability of mutation and the outflow of funds from the stock market may continue. "
Sustainable investment is expected to be an area of resilience, and investors, including Invesco and Lombard Odier, are bullish on bonds in this area.
Huang Yongde (Freddy Wong), head of Invesco's Asian fixed income division, said sectors related to ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) or renewable energy would continue to receive strong support from global investors.
He added:
"funding is always available in the ESG and renewable energy sectors, and capital flows tend to be very stable, which many believe is why the impact of outbreaks on renewable energy or utility-related companies is limited."
One of the booming areas is green bonds. So far, Indian companies have issued a record $4.1 billion of green bonds in 2021, issued by issuers including JSW Hydro Energy, ReNew Power and Continuum Energy.
Dollar-denominated credit is another area of concern. Neeraj Seth, head of credit at BlackRock Asia, said investment-grade issuers, including quasi-sovereign countries and conglomerates, were less affected by falling consumer confidence and spending.