Niuniu knocked on the blackboard:
As Hong Hao of BoCom International puts it, there is no new "commodity supercycle". But a survey by LME shows that experts are unanimously bullish on copper prices, and that even without the commodity supercycle, the energy transformation of countries to achieve carbon-neutral targets will be good for copper prices.
As central banks around the world begin to tighten monetary policy, there is growing scepticism about the concept of a commodity "supercycle".
Hong Hao, managing director of BoCom International, said that the recent surge in commodity prices has made some experts unable to resist the temptation of linear extrapolation to use a "supercycle" to predict the future trend of commodity prices. But in fact, there is no new "commodity supercycle", and we have already been swept into the fourth long wave of prices since the 18th century.
Similarly, according to a survey conducted at the London Metal Exchange (LME) Asian Metals Symposium (LME Asia Metals), only 6.49 per cent of participants believed that "supercycle" was an accurate word to describe the main forces in commodity market trends over the next 12 months. By contrast, 33.77% of participants believed that liquidity and inflation were the most accurate words to describe commodity market trends in the coming year, while 22.08% of participants thought it was a rebound in Chinese demand and developed economies.
Geordie Wilkes, director of research at Sucden Financial, said
"We don't really believe in supercycles right now. You're starting to see some central banks start to scale back their bond purchases, and even if they don't, they're starting to talk about it. We have also seen emerging markets start to raise interest rates, really focus on inflation, and see how they can be curbed after asset prices rise. "
Thomas Horn, head of commodities and global markets at Macquarie Group in China, also believes that the epidemic and subsequent recovery, even if extended to some extent, is somewhat transitional. It is believed that the Fed will slightly tighten policy around 2023.
However, while most participants agreed that there was no "supercycle", all experts agreed that the energy transformation trend undertaken by countries to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization would benefit some metals, particularly copper, nickel and lithium.
According to the survey, 52.69% of respondents believe that copper is the metal that will benefit the most in the next 6-12 months, followed by lithium and aluminum, with 16.13% and 13.98% respectively optimistic about prices in the next 6-12 months.
Liu Shoujian, deputy chief executive of Jianyin International, said that with the support of infrastructure demand and the fast-growing new energy vehicle market, copper will become a dark horse.
Edit / irisz