Original title: there will be a danger warning for the US economy in six months' time.
In the past few months, soaring prices have had a very negative impact on both businesses and consumers. However, some seller research institutions have been very active, Bank of AmericaIt even said that "temporary hyperinflation will come soon."
But that did not force the Fed to make concessions and admit that inflation was not "temporary". The Fed may be right this time, because wages are not rising, but prices are rising.
The picture below shows that the Biden fiscal stimulus package is coming to an end, and people who rely solely on government subsidies will not be able to survive. Americans' willingness to buy (six months from today) fell sharply in the three main spending categories: homes, cars and household appliances, as measured by the conference committee.
Residents' willingness to buy has dropped sharply, with the largest monthly decline in the willingness to buy household appliances.
The willingness to buy houses has also fallen sharply.
As house prices soared, buyers' confidence collapsed and builders' confidence soared, the deviation between the two set a new record.
Lynn Franco (Lynn Franco), senior director of (Conference Board) economic indicators at the World Federation of large Enterprises, said that for better or worse, this heralds stagflation. While consumers' assessment of the current situation has improved, short-term optimism has eased in anticipation of slower growth and weak labour market conditions in the coming months.
There are no other data to show that American consumers have begun to cut back on spending. In six months, however, Mr Biden's trillions of stimulus will be exhausted and the spending binge will end.
Wages will not necessarily continue to rise because employers are well aware that extended unemployment benefits end in September, when millions of currently unemployed workers will flood the labour market and wages are likely to fall sharply. So instead of raising the base salary, employers offer only an one-off bonus. In October, retailers such as Uncle Sam will no longer compete with the US private sector in terms of pay, and wages will fall sharply.
Producers and retailers that have huge demand and push prices up sharply will face a grim choice: either pull prices directly back down or sharply reduce sales of goods and services. Otherwise, we will have to wait for the next rescue.