According to reports, UBSChen Yanfu, an equity analyst at the Office of the Wealth Management Investment Director, pointed out in a conference call that the major Asian currencies still have room to appreciate in the next three to six months, mainly because the dollar is expected to remain weak until the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy is determined to shift.
Despite global economic growth andInflation is at a high level, but US interest rates are expected to remain in the 0.25% range until the end of 2023. Inflation is expected to peak between May and June this year and is unlikely to exceed 3 per cent for a long time.
UBS said gold prices were likely to remain high in the short term, but gold prices are expected to fall towards $1600 an ounce over the next 12 months as the Fed shifts, US real interest rates recover towards 0 per cent and the dollar is likely to strengthen in the first half of next year.
The agency believes that underperforming stock markets in the first half of 2021 have greater upward potential, especially in China and Japan. From the perspective of class stocks, stocks with high correlation with economic restart, such as energy, materials, finance, US small-cap stocks and medium-sized stocks, all have more room to rise.
UBS also said that the shortage of semiconductors will peak in the second or third quarter of this year, but a full return to balance between supply and demand is expected to take between 2022 and 2023.