Global sales of generalized new energy passenger vehicles reached 3.06 million from January to May in 2021. Among them, the global sales of new energy vehicles in the narrow sense of plug-in, pure electric and fuel cells reached 1.86 million, an increase of 165% over the same period last year. China's new energy passenger cars have reached 51% of the world share in the past 19 years. However, due to the influence of the policy environment and epidemic situation in 2020, the world position of China's new energy vehicle market has dropped to 41%, and Europe is obviously surpassing it. From January to May 2021, 1.86 million new energy passenger vehicles were sold in the world, and China's new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 51% of the world share.

The reason for the super performance of new energy vehicle sales in 2020 is the pressure of carbon emissions, not the significant contribution of Tesla, Inc.. The support of new energy policies in Europe and the United States under the influence of overseas epidemics is strong, and China's new energy vehicle market will gradually recover in the second half of 2020. From April to May 2021, China accounted for 47% of the world's new energy vehicles, returning to a high level. The increment of China's return to the world is mainly driven by the marketization of China's new energy vehicle market, forming a strong endogenous growth force.

The commercial vehicle market analysis is specially thrown out here, mainly that the world's new energy trucks and buses are basically in China, and the new energy buses are shrinking after the epidemic, although the share of China is increased a little, but the analysis is of little significance.

I. the trend of New Energy vehicles in the World

From the broad sense of new energy vehicles to the narrow sense of the analysis of new energy passenger vehicles:

The development of new energy vehicles in the world starts from hybrid power, and then gradually enters the era of battery-based, pure electric and plug-in become the real policy support of new energy.

The development of new energy vehicles in China is also a subsidy process that begins with ordinary hybrids that support bus trucks. Then the bus entered the era of pure electric, and the hybrid bus became history.

In our analysis, we do not consider passenger cars and special-purpose vehicles, as long as we consider passenger cars. The reason is that the technology of passenger cars and special-purpose vehicles is relatively backward, and there is no market space outside the policies such as bus rights vehicles in the near future, so all countries have made passenger cars the focus of new energy development.

1. The market trend of generalized new energy passenger vehicles in the world from 2004 to 2020

There are 1.58 million generalized new energy passenger vehicles in the world in 2012, but only 1.79 million in 2015, showing a slow growth. With the accelerated development of new energy vehicles that began in 2016, the number of generalized new energy vehicles exceeded 2 million in 2016, 3.16 million in 2017 and 4 million in 2018. The number will reach 5.15 million in 2020. There are 3.06 million generalized new energy vehicles from January to May in 2021, of which ordinary hybrids account for 39%.

From 2018 to 2021, the proportion of hybrid has continued to decline to 41%, and the share has gradually stabilized. Among them, hybrid passenger cars gradually dropped from 93% in 12 years to 80% in 2015, and then the proportion of hybrid vehicles dropped by 10% a year. The decline in hybrid market share slowed in 2019, but still fell to 39% in 2021. The trend of intermingling is strong in 2021. The hybrid performance is gradually weakening, and the pure electric is relatively stable.

Performance of new energy passenger vehicles in the world in 21 years

Sales of new energy passenger cars were 2.86 million in 2020, an increase of 35 per cent compared with the same period in 2019.

The trend of new energy vehicles in the world in 2020 is obviously low before and after. It decreased by 15% from January to June and increased by 86% in July-13. The incremental performance from November to 13 months.

The 165% increase in sales of 1.83 million new energy vehicles from January to May in 2021 was a stronger-than-expected performance.

3. The trend of the world new energy passenger car market in 16-20 years

The world's new energy vehicles are facing high base pressure in the first half of 2020 and began to enter a low base stage in July.

The increase accelerated from January to May in 2021, and the growth was stronger at a low base due to the severity of the epidemic in Europe in May last year.

Sales of new energy vehicles in 2020 were 2.85 million, an increase of 36% over the same period last year.

The deceleration trend has exceeded expectations in recent years. Sales of new energy vehicles in 2019 were 2.11 million, up 7% from the same period last year. In the previous few years, the world's new energy sales have exceeded 60% growth. The performance has the potential to improve in 2021, and the growth rate rebounded to 165% from January to May.

Judging from the regional market trend of new energy vehicles, Europe has always accelerated its upward trend in 2020, which is only relatively low in June. The trend of China's new energy vehicle market is even stronger in January 2021. New energy vehicles in the US market are relatively depressed and stable.

The law of the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market is relatively different from that of traditional cars, especially the fluctuation law between year and month, which is not only affected by consumption. and affected by policies and other environments, so the market change of new energy vehicles should be more complex, but with the arrival of the overall trend of market transformation of new energy vehicles. Recently, new energy vehicles have gradually turned to a conventional running state. Sales of new energy vehicles will start high in 2021. Europe will be better than expected in May and will continue to develop well.

II. Market trend of New Energy vehicle structure in the World

1. The trend of the world new energy passenger car market in 15-21

The European new energy market from January to May in 21 years was affected by the epidemic, and its share decreased more than that of 20 years. Recently, the growth rate of China's new energy passenger vehicles is weaker than the world average growth rate. The world share of China's new energy passenger vehicles has reversed greatly in the past 20 years, depressed in the first quarter, reversed in the second quarter, skyrocketed in the second half of the year, and remained strong from January to May in 21 years.

Besides China, the sales volume of other countries in the world is strong and fluctuating. The average growth rates of France and Germany both doubled at the end of 2020, and Europe is relatively strong. The slower growth rate is lower in Japan, and the growth rate of new energy markets such as South Korea is also average.

2. The product structure of new energy passenger cars in the world.

The proportion of pure electricity continues to increase in recent years, but the performance of mixing is strong in 2020. The proportion of the world's total sales of new energy vehicles in 21 years is 31%. Pure electric accounts for 69%.

The world's 21-year sales of new energy vehicles account for 30% of the total sales. The proportion of pure electric power reached 70%, and the share of pure electricity increased slightly.

The pure electric and plug-in of B-class cars are the main models, and the A00 class is also significantly stronger.

3. The structure of new energy passenger vehicles in the world-2021

In 2020, the structure of new energy vehicles in the world is stronger in Europe, followed by Asia, so it is obvious that the pure electricity of European market structure is the same as that of plug-in. Pure electric accounts for a high proportion in France and Norway.

The recent structural upgrading of China has promoted the upgrading of the structure of world models. The share of China's A00 pure electric vehicles has dropped to 38% of China's new energy vehicles, and the proportion of Class A cars has increased to 23%, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of A-class cars in the world structure.

III. Market trend of New Energy vehicle structure in the World

1. The share trend of new energy vehicles in various countries-China takes the lead

With the continuous improvement of the performance of China's new energy vehicles in the world market, the share of China's new energy vehicles in the world market has reached 45% in 16 years, 47% in 17 years, 54% in 18 years, and 51% in 19 years. It was 41% in 20 years, slightly lower than that in 18 years. In 21 years, China's new energy vehicles accounted for 47% of the world market, which is also the result of the combination of internal and external factors. It is also good to return to 47% share in 21 years.

2. The share trend of new energy vehicles from various manufacturers

Tesla, Inc. remains number one in the world and continues to be strong at present. SAIC's new energy performance is excellent, SAIC passenger cars and SAIC Wuling two independent car companies are doing very well. Volkswagen's new energy vehicles have a strong performance, which has been seriously affected by the epidemic this year. Coupled with the sprint at the end of last year, the trend at the beginning of the year is weak. BMW Group, BYD, German Mercedes-Benz and so on remain at the second echelon level.

The competition of the new energy wave of luxury cars is relatively fierce. Tesla, Inc. of the United States has performed extremely well, promoting Mercedes-Benz and BMW to increase investment in new energy vehicles. At present, the improvement speed of BMW-Mercedes-Benz performance cars is not very fast. Tesla, Inc. 's sales are currently the increment of model3. The volume of BMW is mainly that of BMW x3, that of Mercedes-Benz is that of Mercedes-Benz Smart, and that of BMW 5-Series and BMW 3-Series are relatively large.

Tesla, Inc. 's model3 has gradually entered the absolute main model. Tesla, Inc. 's model s and model x have a strong performance in the Chinese market.

In recent years, the models of China's new energy car companies are very excellent, especially the 20-year pure electric models are very strong under the promotion of policy and have great potential in the future.

3. The share trend of the main models of new energy vehicles.

The performance of the main model of new energy vehicles is quite different, new products are emerging rapidly, and the market performance of traditional new energy vehicles continues to decline.

The world performance of China's main models is super strong. There are strong models in both the middle and low end of the high school.

IV. The trend of the World Electric vehicle structure Market

1. China's share of pure electric power in 21 years is 57%.

The share of pure electric passenger cars in China reached 48% in 2020, which is not significantly better than that in 2019.

In 2020, the pure electric power of new energy in the United States is stronger under the drive of Tesla, Inc. 3. But the proportion is gradually decreasing.

The market share of new energy vehicles such as France and Germany has increased relatively large, while the share of pure electric vehicles in Japan and South Korea in the Asian market is also mediocre.

Tesla, Inc. still takes the lead in the share of pure electric in the world in 2 and 21 years.

Tesla, Inc. has the highest share of electric cars in the world, at about 25 per cent this year.

The strength of China's Wuling electric vehicles is obvious, which promotes SAIC's prominent position in the world of new energy. BYD accounted for 6% of the world's pure electric share in 21 years. The volatility is more obvious.

3. Sales of pure electric models in the world over the years

The Tesla, Inc. MODEL3 in 2020 is the highest-selling single model in the world car market. Although the January Hongguang MINI became the first. From January to May, Tesla, Inc. is still the first.

BYD performed very well, while GAC NE performed better in AIONS.

V. the market trend of plug-in hybrid car structure in the world

1. The overall share of China's 20-year mix-in is 25%.

China, which intervenes in the market, has a strong performance, still ranking first in the world at 25%, but Germany has a strong trend, while other countries are weak.

2. The overall share of European car companies has increased in the past 20 years.

The outstanding companies in the world are European car companies, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and Volvo are all very strong. China's BYD, SAIC passenger cars are also very good performance.

3. The main models in the world have strong performance.

The BMW 5-Series is currently performing very well. Mercedes-Benz has a good performance in all series, but the star model is not strong.

The performance of Qin of BYD is very strong, followed by Song and Tang of BYD.

Toyota (TM.US) Prius is also very good at mixing, and the LI.US (ONE) is very strong.

VI. The hybrid power market is relatively stable

This hybrid market, represented by Japan, has become the main hybrid market. In 2021, Japan's hybrid market accounts for 33%, the United States 28%, China 17%, and other countries have very few markets.

Of particular concern here is the European hybrid market, which has barely changed from 20% in 19 years to 18% now.

The change of the world's main hybrid market depends on the change of the Chinese market, which is located outside the Chinese market, and the hybrid does not have much recognition in the world.

Honda's hybrid models are the best selling in China, while sales in Japan are not high.

Japanese brand models are basically the core dominant position, while the main models of Toyota and HMC.US occupy an absolutely dominant position. The second Corolla is called the overseas Toyota Corolla, which is basically the same as the domestic Carola products.

Independent car companies basically have no models to participate in the hybrid market, GM, Mercedes-Benz and other gradually withdraw from the hybrid market.