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美债市场长期通胀预期指标跌至3月以来最低水平

Long-term inflation expectations in the US bond market fell to their lowest level since March

新浪財經 ·  Jul 9, 2021 01:59

The 30-year break-even inflation rate fell to 2.18%, the lowest level since March.

Now inflation fears are fading from stocks to commodities, most notably in the U.S. Treasury market.

Long-term Treasury yields fell in a downward spiral this week, driven by a general decline in inflation expectations.

The 30-year break-even inflation rate, which reflects inflation expectations over the next three decades, fell to 2.18 per cent, the lowest level since March, when the interest rate peaked at 2.41 per cent, and investors were reluctant to hold assets betting on reflation. In fact, break-even inflation is lower than last week for all terms.

Until recently, investors in all asset classes were concerned about inflation. Now inflation fears are fading from equities to commodities, most notably in the US Treasury market. The yield on the 30-year note fell below 1.90% for the first time since February and did not leave that low even after the Fed minutes were released.

The yield on the 10-year note hovered below 1.3%, about 0.5 percentage points below its March peak of 1.77% and down from 1.42% over the weekend. The 10-year real yield fell to about-0.96% from-0.93% over the weekend.

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