1． 大流行：
Bank of AmericaIt is believed that five factors will put pressure on the market in the third quarter, causing asset prices to fall, the stock market may also fall sharply, and the S & P 500 index may fall below 4000.
BofA analysts wrote in a report that many assets had good news in the first half of this year, but the Wall Street "boom / bubble" may need "some respite".
They believe that five factors-pandemics, prices, positioning, policy and profits-will drag on credit, equity and commodity returns in the third quarter, in part because of expectations of relatively weak corporate earnings growth in the fourth quarter.
1. Pandemic:
Bank of America predicts that with the increasing number of novel coronavirus infections worldwide, the growth this year and next year andProfit expectations will fall. This could put downward pressure on asset prices.
2. Price
The latest outbreak comes at a time when asset pricing is already strong and the price-to-earnings ratio of the S & P 500 is at the level of the dotcom bubble. Commodity and real estate prices are also at or near all-time highs. Spreads between US risk-free bonds and junk bonds have tightened unusually, with junk bond yields falling below inflation on Friday. When yields fall, prices rise. )
3. Positioning
BofA analysts point out that survey data show that fund managers put a lot of money into "post-cyclical" assets-assets best suited for inflation and weak growth. In the third quarter, they expect the s & p to fall below 4000, down about 8% from its current level, with technology stocks leading the decline.
4. Policy
Inflation in the developed world will force monetary and fiscal authorities to ease stimulus measures in the third quarter. In addition, the prospects for the $1.7 trillion infrastructure plan proposed by President Joe Biden have dimmed, as the Biden administration is now pursuing a scaled-down bipartisan deal.
5. Profit
Corporate profits will come under pressure in the second half of this year, given possible restrictions on the COVID-19 epidemic, supply shortages and a possible slowdown in growth. The stock market is also likely to fall preemptively, as investor unease will lower fourth-quarter profits, as reflected in third-quarter share prices.
