Original title: us oil diving once approached 74 US dollars, rumor has it that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reached an agreement to increase oil production.

Wednesday (July 14) in European trading

-sources say Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reached an agreement on oil production, but the news has yet to be officially confirmed, and data show that China's crude oil imports fell in the first half of the year, but remained near an one-week high. this has raised investors' concerns about a recovery in crude oil demand against the backdrop of a global economic recovery from the novel coronavirus pandemic.

As of press time, the United States

Crude oil futures traded at US $74.74 per barrel, down 0.53%, and Brent crude oil.

The futures price was at 76.05 US dollars per barrel, down 0.61 per cent.

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Before Chairman Colin Powell testified before Congress, investors took profits and the dollar's rally triggered by US inflation data wavered. Us inflation soared to its highest level in 13 years on Tuesday, reviving the Fed's tightening expectations. As market concerns about novel coronavirus variants continue to rise and exacerbate risk aversion, it remains to be seen whether oil prices can stay high.

China's crude oil imports fell 3 per cent from January to June from a year earlier, the first such contraction since 2013, as shortages of import quotas, refinery maintenance and rising global prices discouraged purchases.

Imports have fallen as soaring crude oil prices have eroded refiners' profit margins, Eurasia said in a report. If the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) does not agree to increase supply soon, high oil prices could also lead to lower demand in more cost-sensitive emerging markets, particularly India. Differences in supply policy between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) led to the end of talks on increasing production that were not agreed last week.

In addition, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), preliminary data show that crude oil inventories in the third quarter of 2021 are likely to see the biggest decline in at least a decade. As OPEC production decreased and non-OPEC countries increased production, global oil supply increased by 1.1 million b / d to 95.6 million b / d in June. Preliminary data from the US, Europe and Japan in June showed that industrial inventories fell by 21.8 million barrels.

U.S. oil and gasoline stocks fell last week, two market sources said on Tuesday, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Specific data show that API crude oil stocks in the United States fell by 4.079 million barrels in the week ended July 9, with an expected decrease of 4.333 million barrels and a previous value of 7.983 million barrels, while API gasoline stocks decreased by 1.544 million barrels in the week ended July 9, with an expected decrease of 1.667 million barrels and a previous value of 2.736 million barrels. The United States will be announced at 22:30 Beijing time on Wednesday for the week ending July 9.

We should pay attention to the change of crude oil inventory.

Analysts pointed out that on the one hand, after the collapse of previous capacity negotiations, OPEC+ is to reach a new agreement as soon as possible, but the internal rift is getting deeper and deeper until it collapses again and is still at a crossroads. On the other hand, there are also many variables in the global epidemic and economic trends in the rest of the second half of the year. As a result, there are also different outcomes of continuing to soar and turning downwards in the future of oil prices.

Under the background that the news of the short-term balance of supply and demand is still uncertain, the oil price denominated in US dollars may be temporarily affected.

Dollar index

Driven by fluctuations. If Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell's testimony speech continues to reassure the market to release dove language, the renewed decline in the dollar may still be bearish for US crude oil to rise to the previous high level of US $76-77, but it will be difficult to continue to break without more fundamental information.

Commerzbank still expects OPEC+ to reach an agreement to increase production appropriately by the end of the year.

The price of Brent crude is expected to be 75 US dollars per barrel, 2021 and 2022 Brent crude oil

The average price is expected to be $70 / barrel and $73 / barrel, respectively.

Crude oil open contracts rose for the second day in a row on Tuesday and are now up 19500, according to preliminary data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group crude oil futures market. Turnover increased by about 228700 contracts.