Snowdon称，作为炼钢的原材料，铁矿石的需求一直很强劲，这一趋势似乎将持续到明年。即使亚洲的铁矿石需求放缓，世界其他地区和（发达市场）的需求动态仍异常强劲。在他看来，高于趋势的需求增长率可能持续至2022年，部分原因是钢铁将是建设绿色基础设施的重要原材料。Original title: the high price of $200 per ton of iron ore is difficult to last, but the bull market does not stop, and it is difficult to fall below $100 in the short term.
July 16th, Goldman SachsNicholas Snowdon, head of base metals and bulk research, said the bull market in the ore market had been going on for more than two years and would not end soon. Although, Wood Mackenzie and Goldman Sachs say the iron ore bull market will not end anytime soon.
Snowdon explained that iron ore prices are currently supported by very strong demand, suppliers have refrained from increasing production and iron ore inventories are very low. He also predicts that the iron ore market will not return to a more "comfortable" position until 2023 or 2024.
Demand for iron ore, the raw material for steelmaking, has been strong, a trend that looks set to continue into next year, Snowdon said. Even if demand for iron ore slows in Asia, demand dynamics in the rest of the world and [developed markets] remain unusually strong. In his view, the above-trend demand growth rate is likely to continue into 2022, in part because steel will be an important raw material for green infrastructure.
On the supply side, Snowdon said supply growth did not respond to high prices and producers have been self-disciplined on capital spending. For now, the market seems to be very tight, supply and demand has a very strong support, demand growth is still strong. Prices fall only when demand growth slows, he added.
Rohan Kendall, head of iron ore research at Wood Mackenzie, expressed the same view. "Australian producers have almost reached the limit of infrastructure utilization, so they cannot expand at any rate," he said in another panel discussion. "
At the same time, Brazil's Vale do Rio DoceVale's production is likely to continue to be limited as the metals and mining company is still dealing with problems related to the dam disaster two years ago. Kendall said the company still faces challenges that will take several years to resolve.
Iron ore prices are unlikely to stay above $200 a tonne, but can hold $100 by the end of the year, the agency said
Both Kendall and Erik Hedborg, chief analyst at commodity intelligence firm CRU, agree that iron ore prices are unlikely to remain above $200 a tonne.
However, Kendall does not expect to see a collapse in iron ore prices in the next 12 months.
He thinks that iron ore prices above 200 US dollars per ton are unsustainable.
But you may see the price remain around $150 per ton. These levels are still "very high" by historical standards.
Hedborg agrees that iron ore prices will remain high, not the $200 a tonne level seen now, but is sure to see prices above $100 a tonne for the rest of the year.
