On July 26, CICC issued a research report to maintain Futu Holdings' "Outperform Industry" rating with a target price of US$183.
In its research report, CICC expects that the number of Futu 2021Q2 users will continue to grow strongly, but its Q2 revenue and profits are expected to decline month-on-month, taking into account lower turnover rates and higher customer acquisition costs in the Hong Kong stock market.
However, CICC stressed that considering Futu's comprehensive advantages with time barriers in all aspects such as license qualification, user experience, technology reserve and capital strength, its growth path is clear, the market space is broad, and the pullback provides buying opportunities instead.
![big](https://postimg.futunn.com/2021072700135592b827b41eacb.png/big)
Key points of attention:
1) the number of fee-paying households is expected to maintain strong growth.CICC expects Futu Q2 to add about 196000 to 986000 paying users, of which the Singapore market may contribute nearly half of the increase; the rising proportion of foreign users effectively increases the conversion efficiency of customers from registration to gold.
2The turnover rate has fallen, the cost of obtaining customers has increased, and the company's revenue and profit are expected to decline significantly compared with the previous month.1) Q2 Hong Kong stock market ADT-33% to 151.3 billion Hong Kong dollars, US stock trading volume-15%, the company's turnover rate is expected to decline by about 40%; in addition, the composite commission rate is also expected to decline due to promotional activities newly entering the Singapore market. 2) considering the rigidity of employee costs, the high growth in the number of new users, and the increase in the cost per customer brought about by the opening up of new markets and the decline in the market, it is expected that the marketing expenses will increase significantly compared with the previous month, driving the company's Q2 operating profit margin to-17.1ppt to 40.6%.
3) short-term betaAttributes lead to performance fluctuations, long-term high user growth drives cross-cycle growth, and market pullbacks provide buying opportunities.CICC believes that Futu has the comprehensive advantages of time barriers in all aspects such as license qualification, user experience, technology reserve, capital strength, etc., with a clear growth path and broad market space: 1) first of all, through international expansion to link global investors and China's new economic enterprises to achieve rapid growth in the number of users and assets. 2) second, use high frequency to promote low frequency, create an elephant wealth management platform, and strengthen the stickiness and robustness of users' assets, as well as diversified ways of realization; 3) looking forward, the company plans to develop into an all-around account and realize a global account market; it is expected that Futu will further promote one-stop digital financial services such as financial management / payment / banking in the Hong Kong market in the future.
Valuation and recommendations:
CICC estimates that Futu's 2Q21 revenue will be the same as + 137% CPM 26% to HK $1.63 billion, taking into account the impact of the market downturn on the turnover rate and the increase in cost per passenger, and cut its 2021 / 2022 non-GAAP profit by 21% to HK $3.3 billion / 4.6 billion. Futu is currently trading on 43x/31x 2021e/22e PE. Taking into account the profit adjustment, but also taking into account the vast market space of the company, cut the target price by 10% to $183, corresponding to 45x2022e PE and 47% upside space.
Risk:
Market volatility risk
The competition exceeded expectations
Regulatory uncertainty.
富途资讯获悉,7月26日中金公司发布研报维持富途控股「跑赢行业」评级,目标价183美元。
中金在研报中预计,富途2021Q2用户数仍将保持强劲增长,但考虑港股市场换手率回落、获客成本提升,预计其Q2收入及盈利环比下降。
不过中金强调,考虑富途在牌照资质、用户体验、技术储备、资本实力等全方面建立的具备时间壁垒的综合优势,其成长路径清晰、市场空间广阔,回调反而提供买入机会。
![big](https://postimg.futunn.com/2021072700135592b827b41eacb.png/big)
关注要点:
1)预计付费用户数仍保持强劲增长。中金预计富途Q2新增付费用户约19.6万人(环比+25%)至98.6万人,其中新加坡市场或贡献近一半增量;持续提升的境外用户占比有效抬升从注册到入金的客户转换效率。
2)换手率回落、获客成本提升,预计公司收入及盈利环比降幅明显。1)Q2港股市场ADT环比-33%至1,513亿港币、美股交易量环比-15%,预计公司换手率环比降幅约4成;此外,由于新进新加坡市场的促销活动,预计综合佣金率亦有所下滑。2)考虑员工成本刚性,新增用户数的高增长以及开拓新市场+市场回落带来的单客成本上升,预计营销费用环比提升明显,带动公司Q2经营利润率环比-17.1ppt至40.6%。
3)短期beta属性引致业绩波动,长期用户高增长驱动跨周期成长,市场回调提供买入机会。中金认为,富途在牌照资质、用户体验、技术储备、资本实力等全方面建立具备时间壁垒的综合优势,成长路径清晰、市场空间广阔:1)首先,通过国际化扩张链接全球投资者与中国新经济企业,实现用户数和资产的快速增长;2)其次,以高频促低频、打造大象财富理财平台,加强用户资产粘性和稳健性、多元化变现方式;3)往前看,公司计划将向全能账户发展,实现一个账户全球市场;预计富途未来在香港市场有望进一步推进理财/支付/银行等一站式数字金融服务。
估值与建议:
中金预计,富途2Q21收入同、环比+137%/-26%至16.3亿港币,考虑市场回落对换手率的影响及单客成本上升,下调2021/2022年non-GAAP盈利21%/24%至33亿/46亿港币。富途当前交易于43x/31x 2021e/22e P/E。考虑盈利调整幅度、但同时考虑到公司市场空间广阔,下调目标价10%至183美元,对应45x2022e P/E及47%上行空间。
风险:
市场波动风险;
竞争超预期;
监管不确定性。