Original title: American GDP is far less than expected, but core PCE is very good, gold short-term fluctuation is 3 US dollars.

At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the United States announced that the second-quarter GDP was far lower than expected, but the core PCE in the second quarter improved sharply. As of press time, spot gold rose $3 to $1827.19 an ounce before giving up gains, while the dollar index fell 10:00 to 91.934.

Specific data show that the initial annualized rate of real GDP in the United States in the second quarter was 6.50%, which was 0.1% higher than the previous value, but far less than the expected value of 8.50%. However, the initial annualized quarterly rate of the US core PCE price index in the second quarter was 6.10%, jumping 3.6% from the previous value.

Massive government aid and COVID-19 vaccination have boosted spending on tourism-related services, and economic expansion is expected to remain solid for the rest of the year. However, the resurgence of the epidemic driven by COVID-19 's Delta variant poses risks to the economic outlook.

If higher inflation persists, coupled with continued supply chain disruptions, it could also slow the economy.

We have seen an improvement in the economy, but the economy still needs to perform more positively before it can scale back its ultra-loose monetary policy.

Wells Fargo Bank"consumers have enough income and wealth to support consumer spending, while corporate inventories are still low, and inventory replenishment actions will significantly support business investment and overall GDP growth in the second half of this year," said Sam Bullard, a senior analyst at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Economists expect the u.s. economy to grow by about 7% this year, the fastest pace since 1984. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its forecast for US growth this year and next to 7.0 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively, 0.6 and 1.4 percentage points higher than its April forecast.

The recession triggered by the COVID-19 epidemic lasted only two months, reaching a "trough" in April 2020, just a month after a sharp drop in economic activity in March 2020, the National Institute of Economics (NBER) announced last week.

Strong consumer spending

The Biden administration signed the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 aid bill in March, providing an one-time check of $1400 to eligible families and extending the $1400 unemployment benefit program until early September. This brings the total amount of government aid since the outbreak in the United States in March 2020 to nearly $6 trillion.

Nearly half of the population of the United States has been vaccinated against COVID-19, so that Americans can travel, often eat out, participate in sports activities, and carry out other service activities. While financial support is waning and cases of COVID-19 infection are rising in some states with low vaccination rates, overall US commodity spending remains strong as companies compete for scarce workers and wages are rising.

Gus Faucher, chief analyst at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, said: "these states also tend to be the ones that are most resistant to public health measures to fight the epidemic, such as requiring masks and restricting indoor activities. As a result, extensive restrictions on economic activity that re-emerged in the early stages of the epidemic and at the end of 2020 and early 2021 are unlikely to be massively re-implemented, which will greatly limit the economic impact of the Delta variant and the increasing cases of COVID-19. "

The Fed's current policy is to allow inflation to rise above its target of 2% for a period of time to make up for the impact of periods of low inflation. The market is now likely to pay close attention to whether the Fed will give more policy hints at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole on Aug. 26-28.

Employment recovery needs to be strengthened

Other data released at the same time showed that in the week ended July 24, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States was 400000, lower than the previous figure of 419000, but higher than the expected value of 385000.

The gap in the US job market caused by the epidemic is still large, and there are still nearly 7 million fewer jobs in the United States than before the outbreak. Filling this gap is the focus of the Biden administration and the Fed.

Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said on Wednesday that the U.S. job market still needs to "make some progress" and that it is time to withdraw economic support measures. "I hope to see some strong employment data in the coming months," he told reporters.

Although the pace of vaccination has slowed, the Fed said it still believed that the ongoing vaccination would "reduce the impact of the public health crisis on the economy". Chairman Powell believes that vaccination is the best chance for the economy to return to normal for a long time. This should translate into strong job growth and eventually push the Fed to withdraw its crisis-era plans.

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate near zero on Wednesday, while keeping its bond-buying program unchanged. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell told reporters that the impact of the epidemic on the economy continues to weaken, but the risks to the outlook still exist.

However, Powell played down the risk of the spread of the COVID-19 variant of Delta to economic recovery. In other words, even if the Delta strain causes a counterattack, it is unlikely to derail the Fed's plan to withdraw from crisis-era policy.

The trade deficit widens.

The US merchandise trade deficit widened in June as imports continued to increase at a time of strong economic activity. However, imports of motor vehicles and consumer goods fell. This could indicate that consumer spending is likely to slow in the coming months, which could reflect a global shortage of semiconductors, which is a drag on the production of motor vehicles and some household appliances.

The US economy has recovered faster from the epidemic than other countries, thanks to massive fiscal stimulus, low interest rates and COVID-19 vaccination. But supply chain bottlenecks hinder manufacturers' ability to increase production and boost imports.

Spot gold looks like 1841 US dollars.

On the daily chart, gold prices broke through the 38.2% target of $1822 from the upside c-wave trend of $1789, and is expected to rise to the 61.8% target of $1841 in the future. C wave is the sub-wave of the upstream (ii) wave that starts at $1750. (ii) the wave is the sub-wave of the downlink ((y)) wave that starts at 1917 US dollars. ((y)) the wave is the sub-wave of the adjusted four waves starting from 2075 US dollars.