目前预计第三季度个人消费支出物价指数同比攀升4%，第四季度走高4.1%，是美联储2%目标位的两倍。对剔除食品、能源等波动性因素的核心指标的预期也有所上修。
The supply crunch that has plagued the US economic recovery shows little sign of dissipating in the short term, putting pressure on the economy and possibly triggering inflation.
Forecasters have lowered their growth forecasts for this year and raised a number of inflation expectations for this year and next, according to Bloomberg's latest monthly survey of economists.
James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said persistent supply chain constraints and labor shortages not only hampered economic growth, but also raised costs for companies. "supply falling short of demand means not only higher inflation, but also missed growth opportunities."
The personal consumption expenditure price index is now expected to rise 4% year-on-year in the third quarter and 4.1% in the fourth quarter, double the Fed's 2% target. Expectations for core indicators that exclude volatility factors such as food and energy have also been revised.
Data released on Wednesday showed that inflation remained high in July. Although it is slower than the rapid rise of a month ago, the rapid rise in prices is eroding the purchasing power of the American people. Forecasters now expect the consumer price index to remain above 5% year-on-year by the end of the third quarter.
At a time when the prices of basic items such as food and rents continue to rise, Americans are beginning to restrict the purchase of non-essential items. A recent study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics shows that, adjusted for inflation, income levels in most industries in the United States are lower than in December 2019.
Panic caused by the rapid spread of the delta mutation, or government restrictions on epidemic prevention, could also slow consumption if they reduce spending on dining out, travel and so on.
