The surge in demand for consumer electronics has led to a persistent shortage of chips since the early days of the epidemic. Zhitong Finance has observed recent signs that things may finally be starting to change.
An executive at memory chipmaker Micron Technology Inc told an investor conference last week that demand for consumer personal computers (PC) was slowing and that some of its customers had more chips to use. A day later, Morgan Stanley downgraded several chip stocks in a report; analysts said PC inventories were rising and the smartphone market was likely to experience a similar deterioration.
Global PC shipments rose 13% in the second quarter, according to research firm IDC. The figure was below Evercore ISI's forecast of 18 per cent and slowed sharply from 55 per cent growth in the first quarter. In addition, wireless router manufacturer Netgear Inc. It issued disappointing guidance last month, adding that sales in its consumer network category were lower than expected.
However, it may be too early to declare the shortage over. The outbreak of the Delta variant and the long-term effectiveness of the vaccine make it more difficult to predict than usual. Some chip analysts said the report of weak sales was mainly seasonal and that sales would pick up next year.
The shortage also varies from part to part. Even if consumers can walk into the store and find plenty of laptops, it is still hard to buy new cars or video game consoles. In some cases, the chip delivery time is more than 20 weeks, the longest in at least four years.
However, the craze for computers and printers caused by the epidemic will not be repeated. Once workers or students buy a laptop, they won't need another laptop for a few years. Retailers offer a wide range of discounts for almost all PC-related categories, except for graphics cards (this is still a good time for the gaming industry).
The decline in demand for PC is likely to continue for at least a few quarters. The price of memory is falling sharply because of fears that the chip cycle will end. But this is good news for people who want to buy laptops, printers, webcams or routers, which are expected to be easier to buy this fall.