美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的评论显示，美联储预计通胀率从12个月滚动平均水平来看将保持低于2%。Bank of America CorporationGiven the fed's new policy framework, buyers are likely to emerge when the yield on 10-year treasury bonds is close to 1.5%, Ralph Axel wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. The current 10-year yield is around 1.28%, below the midpoint of the 1.774% range of 0.905%.
Axel said the Fed's flexible average inflation target framework "will have a high probability that the Fed will stay put for a long time, or even cut interest rates without the threat of recession".
Given global deflationary pressures, 10-year interest rates "can reasonably remain very low and are likely to remain very low throughout the economic recovery".
Fed Chairman Colin Powell's comments in Jackson Hole show that the Fed expects inflation to remain below 2% from a 12-month rolling average.
This "will help the market maintain a very shallow rate-raising cycle", with the peak about 50 basis points lower than the previous cycle.
"this means that the peak 10-year Treasury yield will be 3.2 per cent below the high of the 2015-18 cycle," he wrote; similar to the mid-1990s, "as long as the Fed adheres to the new policy framework and anti-inflationary forces remain unchanged, the bond market can implement a bargain-hunting strategy."
