“错误的谨慎可能会毁了一个人的职业，”Levkovich在客户报告中写道。“尽管如此，我们感到不得不坚持我们的分析过程。”
Citigroup Inc's chief U. S. equity strategist is still sticking to one of Wall Street's most bearish stock market forecasts.
Tobias Levkovich admitted he had made a "big" mistake, but stuck to his forecast: the S & P closed at 4000 this year and reached 4350 in June next year. Both levels are lower than Tuesday's close of 4522.68.
Reasons for Levkovich's cautious view include overvaluation and planned tax increases, which would hurt corporate profits. The S & P 500 trades at 21 times forward earnings, close to its highest level since the dotcom bubble.
"wrong caution can ruin a person's career," Levkovich wrote in a client report. "nevertheless, we feel compelled to stick to our analytical process."
Levkovich said he misjudged investors' willingness to chase risky assets under the Fed's monetary stimulus. He raised his target for 2021 from 3800 a few months ago and is now unwilling to give in again. Given that the central bank is prepared to rein in asset purchases and economic growth is set to slow, investors should prepare for a fall, he said.
"We suspect that these factors may not be future drivers, as other factors such as excitement and overvaluation become more influential, partly offset by renewed share buybacks," he said. "the stock market needs to consolidate the gains of the past 18 months, and portfolio managers need more visibility into 2022 profits."
