Since the beginning of this year, the liquor plate has fallen from the "forever dipping god" to the altar, and the share price of Guizhou Moutai, as the big brother, has fallen from a high of nearly 2600 yuan this year to the current 1618.80 yuan, and the lowest price of 1525 yuan is less than 30 yuan from the ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai.

At a time when the performance of the liquor sector is weak, some public fund managers have chosen to stick to it, such as Zhang Kun of Yi Fangda and Liu Yanchun of Jingshun Great Wall, have increased their positions in leading spirits such as Maotai, while some public offerings have chosen to reduce their holdings and switch to other tracks.

For example, Liangchen, the Caitong fund, recently said publicly that the fundamentals of liquor have changed, so the spirit group began to disintegrate.

He said that, like the leading company in the industry, it is unanimously expected that it will have a very high performance this year. As a result, it may have a performance, but it is insufficient in terms of profit performance. The greater disturbance comes from the influence of policies, and liquor enterprises are guided by the general direction of national policies, such as changes in the listing of some liquor products. The main reason is that there is a problem with the fundamentals, which is why it will fall, but the problem with the fundamentals is delayed.

Judging from the position of the fund in charge of liquor stocks, it is true that there are different degrees of reduction in Guizhou Moutai and so on. For example, Caitong's domestic demand growth is set for 12 months, and its position in Kweichow Moutai has dropped from 24800 shares last year to 0 in the first half of this year; another product Caitong multi-strategy selection's position in Kweichow Moutai has increased from 11400 shares at the end of last year to 4400 shares this year, but it is still among the top 10 positions.

In Liang Chen's view, his investment framework is mainly to do industry rotation, not just to look at the valuation, but to take the prosperity of the industry as the core. This high valuation can be maintained if the industry accelerates marginal improvement and the profit forecasting center is raised. Once there is a marginal deceleration or marginal negative in the industry, there may be a relatively large pullback in stages.

From Caitong's multi-strategy selected positions, we can see that at the end of last year, he took heavy positions in consumer stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Haier Smart Home, Midea, China China Free, and so on, and this year he successively reduced his holdings of these stocks. in addition to the agricultural stocks Haida Group and the bank stock China Merchants Bank have some reservations, many new energy sectors have entered the top 10 positions, such as Ningde Times, Ganfeng Lithium and Tianci Materials in the semi-annual report. In the first quarter also bought Zijin Mining Group, Luxi Chemical and other periodic stocks.

To some extent, this fund has become half a new energy-themed fund.

Industry insiders believe that doing industry rotation means that the style of the fund will drift greatly during the year, and the fund turnover rate will be relatively high, at the same time, there is also a risk of chasing higher.

Li Daxiao, a British University Securities, once told the hot new energy sector that the hot spots will rotate, and the hot tracks will also be cooled. There are two possibilities for chasing a high spot. It is OK to chase it halfway up the mountain, but it will be difficult to chase it at the top of the mountain. So it must be blind to ignore the risk and chase high.

Li Daxiao believes that the popular track is not eternal, the value is. The hot tracks will also be abandoned after the heat, while the abandoned once-popular tracks will get cold until they are frozen for many years before they start again.