On Thursday, September 23, the papermaking sector rose rapidly after opening high, and the overall intraday plate rose nearly 7%, leading the two cities higher.

In terms of individual stocks, as of press time, more than 10 stocks, such as Yibin Paper, Sun Paper, and Castle Peak Paper, have risen by the daily limit, and reliable shares have risen by more than 15%.

There are two main reasons for the sudden strong rise of the papermaking sector: first, the papermaking enterprises have announced a new round of price increases; second, the traditional peak season of the papermaking industry is approaching. Driven by these two factors, the papermaking plate broke out strongly.

According to CCTV Finance, since August, many paper companies have issued price increase letters many times, announcing that the ex-factory price of corrugated paper has been adjusted upwards. At present, the national average price of AA corrugated paper in China is about 3870 yuan per ton, an increase of about 15% over the same period last year.

Industry insiders pointed out that in August, paper companies issued a series of price increase letters, on the one hand, they hope to ease the cost pressure by raising prices. On the other hand, there is a tentative price increase before the peak season. The rise in the price of domestic waste paper raw materials this year is one of the main factors driving up the price of corrugated paper.

Huafu Securities Light Industry team believes that benefiting from the linkage increase in pulp and paper prices, the revenue of the paper sector in the first half of this year increased by 36.75% to 94.999 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, and the net profit increased by 124.01% to 10.712 billion yuan. At present, the corrugated price of the box board has risen slightly, the market trading is stable, and the cost end support is strong. September is the peak season for traditional consumption, and subsequent paper prices may maintain an upward trend.

However, Huafu Securities also suggested that the paper industry subdivision direction in the white cardboard is to maintain a weak finishing. Although the paper mill notified a new round of price increases at the end of August, the market demand was general due to a series of factors, such as repeated public health incidents, tight export containers and rising freight rates.

Shanxi Securities pointed out that in the short term, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are the traditional peak demand for corrugated paper and containerboard markets. in addition, the demand for express packaging for "Singles Day" has increased, so the downstream secondary factories are more active in picking up goods, and paper enterprises ship goods smoothly. it is expected that the follow-up market trading is active, the probability of rising paper prices is high, the company's profit per ton of paper will be significantly repaired in the second half of the year, and the performance is more certain than that of the month-on-month improvement.

In the medium and long term, in recent years, under the joint action of multiple factors, such as supply-side reform, "waste ban", "double carbon" policy and market competition, the concentration of the paper industry has gradually increased.

The point of view of the light industrial manufacturing industry of Guojin Securities is more direct. Its chief analyst said the paper's fundamental data did not reflect the characteristics of the traditional peak season, namely, "higher paper prices, higher operating rates and lower inventories". Although the fundamentals of the paper industry are likely to be bottomed out, the outlook for this year's peak season is not optimistic. The rise in the paper sector is not driven by improved fundamentals, but simply by low valuations.