The aftermath of the epidemic stimulates Yuwei to superimpose the pains of the transformation of new and old energy, bringing about an energy crisis.

1) large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus after the epidemic led to a flood of liquidity, energy and other commodities are easily driven by financial attributes and rise. After the superposition of this epidemic, residents' savings have greatly increased, consumption kinetic energy is strong, production recovery is slow, supply chain is blocked, and there is a great contradiction between supply and demand, which aggravates the risk of price increase.

2) behind the overseas energy crisis, there are unstable factors in the energy system after the transformation of new energy. In order to achieve decarbonization, Europe's power supply structure has been transformed from coal power to natural gas, offshore wind power and nuclear power. 15% of Britain's electricity comes from offshore wind power, which is insufficient due to lack of wind in the English Channel. Natural gas power generation, which accounts for 41% of electricity generation, needs to be replaced, while the supply of natural gas in Europe is also compressed in carbon and below, making it difficult to meet demand, triggering a sharp rise in natural gas prices.

Texas of the United States also has the problem of unstable power supply caused by compressed coal units. in addition, the lack of capacity market and market fragmentation and lack of dispatching capacity have also contributed to large-scale power outages and soaring electricity prices.

3) under the background that the new energy supply system is difficult to change rapidly and extreme weather occurs frequently, periodic crises may still occur.

4) the enlightenment of the overseas energy crisis: first, gradually and orderly withdraw from traditional energy; second, it is necessary to further build a more intelligent and flexible power supply system from the power generation end, transmission end, energy storage end, etc.; third, to establish a more extensive power market and strengthen the regional power allocation capacity.

5) be optimistic about three tracks under the global energy crisis: traditional energy-coal; new energy-photovoltaic operation, nuclear power; power grid-transmission and energy storage

Given the rising demand for natural gas in Europe in the fourth quarter, supply constraints and historically low inventories, we believe that the shortage of gas in Europe will continue until at least the end of the year, keeping energy prices strong.

The demand side is mainly supported by winter heating demand and economic recovery, the supply side, whether LNG or pipeline natural gas, is difficult to improve, and inventory is at an all-time low.

Given that La Nina climate may increase the probability of cold winters in the Northern Hemisphere, natural gas prices have further upward risks. The shortage of natural gas in Europe may not be alleviated until the "Nord Stream 2" natural gas pipeline is fully ventilated, which is currently expected to be at the end of the year or early 2022.

In addition to energy prices, structural factors are also contributing to higher inflation.

Chip shortages, rising rents and rising wages are still structural factors driving inflation. The recent rise in chip prices has slowed, but the gap between supply and demand will continue until mid-2022; a sharp upward trend in house prices is being transmitted to rent prices, and the low vacancy rate indicates strong rental demand and a strong upward trend in rents; the number of job vacancies in the United States is at an all-time high, which will lead to a further rise in wages.

Global growth is declining, the recovery is uneven and stagflation is intensifying, so we need to be on guard against the risk of external policies exceeding expectations.

In emerging markets, although the recovery is not sufficient, monetary policy has been "robbed" by inflationary pressures in some countries. Central banks in developed countries have also begun the process of normalizing monetary policy, and Norway has become the first traditional developed country central bank to raise interest rates after the epidemic. Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell also acknowledged inflationary pressure. The global stagflation relay will bring new disturbance to the external policy environment.

At the beginning of 2021, because of the extremely cold weather, there was a large-scale power outage in Texas, and residents had to use wood for heating and even people were frozen to death, and the sky-high electricity bill made the residents even worse.

It was not far away, when natural gas prices soared in Europe in the fall of 2021, and BP P.L.C. said that nearly 1/3 BP gas stations in the UK had sold out of major grade fuel against the backdrop of panic buying.