Original title: global in-depth observation: "coming like a Storm" inflation in the United States may endanger the global economy source: global Information +

Original title:

Recently, inflation in the United States has become so serious that it has always insisted that "Qualcomm Inc"The Fed, whose inflation is only temporary, also had to change its tune. Experts believe that the sharp deterioration of US inflation will not only drag down the recovery of the world economy, but may even bring the world economy into a high-risk cycle.

The inflation rate in the United States has hit a 30-year record.

In the face of the COVID-19 epidemic, the United States is "the first failed country in the world to fight the epidemic." the ineffective fight against the epidemic has brought a series of negative effects on the supply chain and labor market of the United States to an astonishing extent.

According to the latest figures released by the commerce department, us energy prices soared 24.9 per cent in august, compared with 4.3 per cent in that month and 3.6 per cent in august, excluding food or energy prices. This is well above the Fed's annual inflation target of 2 per cent.

According to UPI, supply chain disruptions and strong demand have led to the United States.8月There was the biggest increase in inflation in 30 years.

Many well-known fast food chains in the United States are facing a serious shortage of raw materials. KFC has "no chicken to fry", McDonald's Corp.、 Starbucks CorpA lot of food was taken off the shelves one after another.

Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell has always thought that high inflation is only temporary, but he admitted last week that inflationary pressures remained high for longer than Fed officials expected.

Powell.Inflation is rising and is likely to remain so in the coming months until it slows down. As the economy continues to reopen, we are seeing upward pressure on commodity prices, especially due to supply shortages in some industries. These effects are greater and last longer than expected. The effects of supply shortages, recruitment difficulties and other constraints could once again prove larger and longer-lasting than expected, posing upside risks to inflation. "

According to US media reports, Powell also said that due to the shortage of the supply chainInflation in the United States is likely to continue into next year.. He saidSupply chain problems could get worse.It is unclear how big the impact will be and how long it will last.

Inflation in the United States "comes like a storm"

Inflation affects all aspects of American people's life, food, clothing, housing and transportation.

According to US media reports, at present, the prices of a large number of goods have risen by more than 10%, and energy products have also increased greatly, which has led to a sharp rise in car fuel prices.

More and more American consumers are hoarding necessities and food, and items such as toilet paper and bottled water are emptying the shelves.

Adam Coons, a financial analyst at Winthrop Capital Management in the United States.I think the first obstacle consumers are facing is the supply chain. Although consumers may be willing to spend more money now, the question is, do they really have products to buy? This will be the biggest obstacle to consumer spending in the fourth quarter. This is not only a question of economic purchasing power, but also a question of whether consumers can really find the products they want. Another thing we worry about is that there are still a lot of Americans out of work. "

U.S. consumer spending rose in August, reinforcing expectations that economic growth slowed in the third quarter as the COVID-19 epidemic continued to spread, Reuters reported.

After continuously lowering the relevant expectations for GDP growth in the United States, Goldman Sachs GroupRecently, it raised its expectations for the US core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE). This index is an important indicator of US inflation. Some analysts believe that the US economy may usher in "stagflation".

According to expert analysis, the severe transport backlog, supply chain chaos, staff shortages in key industries and the COVID-19 epidemic have all put upward pressure on the consumer price index, according to the Commerce Department.

Chen Fengying, researcher of China Institute of Modern International RelationsIn an exclusive interview with Global News, he said that inflation in the United States "comes like a storm", which is not only a problem of loose liquidity, but also a structural problem.

Chen FengyingLiquidity behind US inflation is a structural problem, and macro policies can still carry out quantitative easing. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell changed his tune. In the past, he said it was temporary, but now he thinks it may last until next year. If quantitative easing is not tightened, liquidity will be loose. When people have money in their pockets, they have to spend. There are problems with supply and demand, and the structural problems are even more obvious. So, inflation in the United States is really coming like a storm this time. "

Global inflation may be in danger of getting out of control

Analysts believe that in order to deal with the economies affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, developed economies in Europe and the United States continue to issue more money. The initial results seem to be good, but the side effects of currency overruns are becoming more and more obvious, forcing the global economy in the form of an energy crisis and risking dragging the global economy back to the crisis.

Chen Fengying, researcher of China Institute of Modern International RelationsIt is believed that the biggest spillover risk of high inflation in the United States will lead to the instability of the world financial market, the instability of exchange rates and the instability of capital flows, which will have an impact on the whole world, especially on developing countries and emerging markets.

Jiang Yuechun, researcher of China Academy of International StudiesIn an exclusive interview with Global Information, it was believed that high inflation is one of the typical manifestations of monetary overissuance in developed economies, which may be a drag on the global economic recovery.

Jiang YuechunIn order to recover the economy as soon as possible, most developed countries continue to put money into the market, increasing market liquidity and actually pushing up commodity prices. Now the inflation rate in Europe, the United States and other western economies has clearly exceeded the target of 2%, which has mostly had a negative impact on the economy. At a time when the global economy is still unstable, high inflation will lead to more pessimistic expectations about the economic outlook. The uncertainty of the COVID-19 epidemic is still there. At this critical moment, how to find the greatest common divisor between the control of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production is a realistic problem that every country needs to solve. "

Written by Wang, full text of Yang Zhuoying

Editor Shan Lijuan Yang Nan

Signed for trial by Liu Peng and Liu Yiyao

Director of production, Guan Juanjuan