5y5y远期盈亏平衡通胀率接近约七年来最高水平，这是该指数近几个月来第二次发出类似警示。 5月份，类似的上涨促使前美联储理事会货币和金融市场分析主管Brian Sack加入其他官员行列，警告美联储有必要发出政策调整信号。
5y5y's forward break-even inflation rate is close to its highest level in about seven years.
A similar rise in May prompted a warning from the former head of monetary and financial market analysis on the Federal Reserve Board.
A closely watched indicator of long-term inflation expectations in the US bond market suggests that the Fed may lose control of rising inflationary pressures.
5y5y forward break-even inflation is close to its highest level in about seven years, the second such warning in recent months. In May, a similar rise prompted Brian Sack, a former head of monetary and financial market analysis at the Federal Reserve Board, to join other officials in warning the Fed of the need to signal policy changes.
While the Fed said in June that it would start talking about scaling back bond purchases, setting the stage for a November announcement, spiralling energy prices and rising wages once again pushed break-even inflation higher. With the impending weight reduction considered no longer in doubt, only a hint of the timing of an interest rate hike can be seen by the market as a hawk signal from the Federal Reserve.
"inflation expectations are now clearly out of the low inflation mechanism", with 5y5y forward break-even inflation "hitting the 250bp mark again," Deutsche said. "there is ample evidence that the break-even indicator will eventually 'cross the Rubikon', away from the post-2014 low inflation regime.
Earlier this month, the university of Michigan consumer confidence survey showed that consumer expectations for inflation over the next five to 10 years rose to 3% in September, matching the nearly eight-year high hit in may.
As of Oct. 1, the Fed's own 5y5y forward break-even inflation rate was 2.28%. It reached 2.55% on May 11, the highest level since February 2014. As of October 8, a similar indicator developed by media that was updated more frequently rose to 2.36% from 2.24% on October 1. The Treasury market was closed Monday for a government holiday.
Continued supply chain chaos is likely to keep inflation high, raise inflation expectations and force the Fed to raise interest rates early in 2022.
