CITIC Securities initiates coverage on NIO with Buy rating and $45 price target
CITIC Securities initiates coverage on NIO with Buy rating and $45 price target
After Industrial Securities, CITIC Securities, another top Chinese investment bank, initiated coverage on NIO with a Buy rating.
继兴业证券(Industrial Securities)之后，另一家中国顶级投行中信股份证券(Meituan Securities)在NIO上以买入评级启动了报道。
In a research note released on Monday, CITIC Securities' team of chief new energy vehicle analyst Yuan Jiancong said NIO has now regained its footing after experiencing the darkest moment in 2019, with rapid sales and revenue growth expected.
在周一发布的一份研究报告中，中信股份证券的首席新能源汽车分析师袁建聪团队表示，新能源汽车在经历了2019年最黑暗的时刻后，现在已经重新站稳脚跟，预计销量和收入将快速增长。
In the medium to long term, the company is expected to be a catch-up to Tesla with its ability to sustain financing, strong R&D team, Internet thinking, differentiated product competitiveness, and ability to continue product iteration, the team said.
该团队表示，从中长期来看，该公司有望凭借其持续融资的能力、强大的研发团队、互联网思维、差异化的产品竞争力以及继续产品迭代的能力，成为特斯拉的追赶者。
They have a "Buy" rating and a $45 price target on NIO, the team said, giving the company 8x PS in 2022 under a neutral scenario.
该团队表示，他们对NIO的评级为“买入”，目标价为45美元，在中性情况下，2022年该公司的市盈率为8倍。
NIO closed down 0.53 percent to $35.64 on Monday. The price target implies a 26 percent upside.
NIO周一收跌0.53%，报35.64美元.这个目标价格意味着26%的上行空间。
In their 43-page report, CITIC Securities details NIO's history, equity structure, differentiated competitive advantages, leading gross margins, and view of the electric vehicle industry as a whole.
中信股份证券在他们43页的报告中详细介绍了NIO的历史、股权结构、差异化竞争优势、领先的毛利率以及对电动汽车行业的整体看法。
The team believes that the low- and mid-range new energy SUV market in China is highly competitive, while the high-end market, where NIO is located, has fewer players and huge room for growth.
该团队认为，中国中低端新能源SUV市场竞争激烈，而NIO所在的高端市场玩家较少，增长空间巨大。
"Among the top 10 EV brands in terms of sales in 2020, only Tesla and NIO are in the premium segment, while the other eight brands are in the low to mid-end segment, representing huge room for growth in China's premium EV market," the report said.
报告称：“在2020年销量排名前十的电动汽车品牌中，只有特斯拉和NIO处于高端市场，而其他八个品牌处于中低端市场，代表着中国高端电动汽车市场巨大的增长空间。”
The team said NIO has built its core competitive advantage by focusing on customer experience, and currently has more than 60 percent of user-recommended transactions.
该团队表示，NIO通过专注于客户体验建立了核心竞争优势，目前拥有超过60%的用户推荐交易。
NIO ranks first in the number of patents and R&D investment in China's new car makers, and the newly released ET7 will adopt the latest technologies such as AQUILA super-sensitive system, ADAM supercomputing platform and self-driving platform, with leading intelligent technologies, the team said.
该团队表示，NIO在中国新车制造商的专利数量和研发投入方面排名第一，最新发布的ET7将采用Aquila超敏感系统、Adam超算平台和自动驾驶平台等最新技术，拥有领先的智能技术。
The company's new business model of BaaS and battery swap opens up room for growth by improving the vehicle owner's refueling experience and reducing the cost of first-time car purchases, CITIC Securities said.
中信股份证券称，该公司BaaS和电池更换的新业务模式通过改善车主的加油体验和降低首次购车成本，打开了增长空间。
The team mentioned that it expects NIO's hardware to reach a steady-state gross margin of 25 percent as new models of its NT2.0 platform are launched and scale advantages emerge.
该团队提到，随着NT2.0平台新型号的推出和规模优势的出现，预计NIO的硬件将达到25%的稳定毛利率。
In the long run, NIO will be able to continue to reduce costs and control expenses, the team said, adding that it is bullish on its balance between building the ultimate service system and controlling expenses.
该团队表示，从长远来看，NIO将能够继续降低成本和控制支出，并补充说，它看好自己在构建终极服务体系和控制支出之间的平衡。
In the second quarter of 2021, NIO Pilot's take rate has exceeded 80%, and with ET7 adopting the NAD subscription fee model going forward, software revenue is expected to become an important profit source for the company, CITIC Securities said.
中信股份证券表示，2021年第二季度，NIO Pilot的使用率已超过80%，随着ET7采用NAD订阅费模式的推进，软件收入有望成为该公司重要的利润来源。
The team expects NIO to sell 97,000, 167,000 and 271,000 vehicles in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively, and to reach 600,000 vehicles in 2025, with a market share of about 6.6 percent in China.
该团队预计，NIO在2021年、2022年和2023年分别售出9.7万辆、16.7万辆和27.1万辆汽车，2025年将达到60万辆，在中国的市场份额约为6.6%。
They expect NIO's revenue to be RMB 32.68 billion, RMB 59.82 billion and RMB 99.77 billion, respectively, and net income to be -RMB 6.78 billion, -RMB 1.68 billion and RMB 2.32 billion, respectively, from 2021-2023.
他们预计，从2021-2023年，NIO的收入分别为326.8亿元人民币、598.2亿元人民币和997.7亿元人民币，净收入分别为-67.8亿元人民币、-16.8亿元人民币和23.2亿元人民币。
Provided there are no drastic changes in macro liquidity, a valuation range of 5-10x PS for China's new car makers in the coming year would be a reasonable range, the team said.
该团队表示，如果宏观流动性没有剧烈变化，未来一年中国新车制造商的估值区间为5-10倍PS将是一个合理区间。
CITIC Securities said NIO is valued at 8x PS based on its 2022 revenue forecast of RMB 59.8 billion, considering it has the highest win rate in brand premiumization and a solid position among local premium brands.
中信股份证券表示，考虑到NIO在品牌精品化方面的获胜率和在本土高端品牌中的稳固地位，基于其2022年收入预测598亿元人民币，NIO的估值为每股8倍。
In a report released earlier this month, Industrial Securities analyst Yu Xiaoli said that with the start of NIO's new vehicle cycle based on a new platform and new production capacity in 2022, its deliveries are expected to reach new levels and profitability is expected to improve significantly.
兴业证券(Industrial Securities)分析师于晓丽在本月早些时候发布的一份报告中表示，随着2022年NIO基于新平台和新产能的新车周期的开始，其交货量预计将达到新的水平，盈利能力有望显著改善。
Yu expects NIO to achieve new vehicle sales of 89,000, 163,000, 289,000, 412,000 and 579,000 units from 2021 to 2025, respectively, with sales revenue of RMB 35.38 billion, RMB 65.24 billion, RMB 111.13 billion, RMB 149.53 billion and RMB 196.83 billion.
俞敏洪预计，从2021年到2025年，NIO将分别实现8.9万辆、16.3万辆、28.9万辆、41.2万辆和57.9万辆的新车销量，销售收入分别为353.8亿元、652.4亿元、1111.3亿元、1495.3亿元和1968.3亿元。
Yu has a Buy rating on the company and a price target of $49.50, corresponding to 8x PS in 2022.
Yu对该公司的评级为买入，目标价为49.50美元，相当于2022年的8倍每股收益。