尽管这一数据较此前预期更为激进，但仍与金融市场预期的前景形成鲜明对比。近几周来，投资者纷纷押注英国央行将收紧政策。一些央行官员的一系列强硬言论让交易员预计，央行将在今年年底前加息，利率将在2022年12月达到1%。Economists are increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for a UK economic recovery, disagreeing with the markets on the prospect of a rapid rate hike by the Bank of England (Bank of England).
Britain's economic growth forecast for next year has been cut by 0.4 percentage points to 5.1 per cent, the sharpest decline among major European economies, according to a monthly survey released by Bloomberg. Analysts do not expect the Bank of England to raise the key interest rate (currently 0.1 per cent) until May and raise rates in November.
Interest rate outlook: economists' views on British interest rates are different from those of the market
Although the figure is more aggressive than previously expected, it is still in sharp contrast to the outlook expected by financial markets. In recent weeks, investors have been betting that the Bank of England will tighten policy. A series of tough comments from some central bankers led traders to expect the central bank to raise interest rates by the end of the year, reaching 1 per cent by December 2022.
Economists have also raised their inflation expectations, which are expected to be higher than the Bank of England's 2 per cent target in the first quarter of 2023. The central bank expects inflation to exceed 4% later this year and then fall back to 2.6% in the third quarter of 2022.
Growth decline: it is expected that the size of the British economy this year will not be able to return to the level before the COVID-19 epidemic.
GDP forecasts show that the UK economy will reach pre-COVID-19 output levels in the first quarter of 2022, three months later than previously expected. Unemployment is expected to peak at 5 per cent in the first half of next year, slightly later than expected, but also lower than previously expected. This suggests that when the UK government's unemployment support ended last month, it was estimated that about 1 million people would be on leave, most of whom would find jobs.
Inflation and unemployment expectations
