摩根大通驻伦敦经济学家Allan Monks写道，他揣测“行长贝利正试图暗示央行将更快在近期内做出应对，而且知道自己有”货币政策委员会核心成员的支持。Economists at the world's largest banks followed investors in predicting a rise in interest rates this year after Bank of England Governor Pele's speech sent a stronger signal about the imminent need to curb inflation.
Goldman Sachs Group、 JPMorgan Chase & CoIn their reports released on Monday, both Credit Suisse and Credit Suisse advanced their expectations of raising interest rates to November and predicted further policy tightening next year.
Mr Bailey said on Sunday that while there was no monetary policy tool to deal with price pressures caused by supply shocks, the central bank would "have to take action" to prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched. He did not try to suppress aggressive bets on interest rate hikes in money markets this year.
Allan Monks, an economist with JPMorgan Chase & Co in London, wrote that he speculated that "Governor Pele is trying to imply that the central bank will respond more quickly in the near future and knows that he has the support of core members of the Monetary Policy Committee."
Money markets expect the bank of England to raise interest rates to 0.25% in November and 0.75% by august. Goldman Sachs Group's forecast is more hawkish, with the Bank of England expected to raise interest rates three times from next month, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.75 per cent by May and 1 per cent by the end of next year.
Goldman Sachs Group economist also said that the British economy is expected to return to the size of the pre-COVID-19 epidemic by October next year, while the job market is strong. At the same time, the bank's composite indicators showed a "significant recent rise" in inflation expectations.
However, most economists' expectations are still not as radical as the market. Money markets now almost fully expect interest rates to rise to 0.5% by the end of the year and 1.25% by November 2022.
Extended reading: the Bank of England's expectation of raising interest rates means that the fastest wave of policy tightening of the century is coming.
However, economists and markets are concerned that the central bank is moving too fast to combat inflationary pressures caused mainly by supply chain problems and energy prices, which could lead to policy mistakes.
"the rise in energy prices is temporary and driven by supply factors, and it would be a policy mistake for the Bank of England to raise interest rates and slow the economy in this context," said Sonali Punhani of Credit Suisse.
"among other disadvantages, we believe that raising interest rates to 0.5 per cent by the first quarter of 2022 could slow the economy to allow the Bank of England to pause for some time thereafter," she said.
Original title
