澳大利亚央行是第一家积极淡化市场预期的央行，周二表示将把2023年4月和2024年到期债券做空成本提高至100个基点，通过提高押注加息的成本，来加强对收益率曲线的控制。Compared with other central banks, market expectations of a Fed rate hike are less radical. With the exception of the ECB, most central banks are expected to raise interest rates at a faster pace.
Us traders now expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting in September. Interest rate swap market pricing shows that the Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise interest rates five times, the Bank of Canada three times and the Bank of England four times.
However, there is a view that this kind of prediction is too partial to the eagle. In a report on Tuesday, Priya Misra, a strategist at TD Securities, opposed the latest outlook for global policy and recommended long-term Australian and UK securities to "take advantage of short-end repricing".
The RBA, the first central bank to play down market expectations, said on Tuesday that it would increase the cost of shorting bonds maturing in April 2023 and 2024 to 100 basis points, tightening control over the yield curve by raising the cost of betting on higher interest rates.
The Bank of England stands out when swap traders reprice to advance expectations of an interest rate hike. The hawkish change at the short end of the British debt curve is so significant that although Morgan StanleyBanks still recommend betting on a steeper Eurodollar through contracts expiring in December 2022 and December 2024-a sign that US interest rates continue to tighten, but equivalent UK short-term spreads have been upside down and pricing reflects expectations of interest rate cuts over the same period.
Us prices were relatively calm in early trading on Tuesday as traders reassessed the new landscape of the world's major central banks.
