无独有偶，亚特兰大联储的模型预测数据与花旗银行的美国宏观意外指数相互印证，两者均呈急速下滑趋势。Source: Wall Street
The latest forecast of the Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow model shows that real GDP growth in the United States in the third quarter of 2021 is expected to fall back to 0.5 percent, economic growth is slowing, GDP drivers are weak, and the US economy is not far from recession.
The latest forecasts from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model show that real GDP growth in the US in the third quarter of 2021 is expected to fall from 1.2 per cent in mid-October, 6 per cent two months ago and 14 per cent in May to 0.5 per cent today.
Similarly, the Atlanta Fed's model forecast data and Citibank's U. S. macro surprise index confirm each other, both showing a sharp downward trend.
Even if the average "blue chip" wall street bank's third-quarter GDP forecast is slightly lower than 4% of the GDP now tracker, it is about to turn negative.
According to economists at the Atlanta Federal Reserve, after the recent news from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board, "real personal consumption expenditure growth fell from 0.9% to 0.4% in the third quarter, while the forecast for total private domestic investment growth in the third quarter fell from 10.6% to 8.4%."
In short, everything is slowing and consumption, the 70 per cent driver of GDP growth, may be about to reverse.
Goldman Sachs GroupRecently released a study on the "rate of slowdown", the bank is evaluating its own forecast of different from the Atlanta Fed forecast of the "key areas".
Goldman Sachs Group believes that the risk of his forecast of 3.25% of the third-quarter GDP forecast is balanced. The GDPNow model seems too pessimistic about net trade and investment. Goldman Sachs Group believes that for net trade, the Atlanta Fed's model does not fully reflect supply chain bottlenecks and port congestion on net imports. For investment, capital expenditure and construction indicators usually remain strong.
Zerohedge believes that Goldman Sachs Group will hit the face again on this issue, because the rebound will not be as strong as it expected, because it expects that the biggest consumption growth in the fourth quarter and beyond will come from excess savings will not happen.
Morgan StanleyThe chart directly shows that excess savings spending does not drive consumption growth. Only 1/3 of the $2 trillion in excess savings went to the bottom 80 per cent, while the bottom 80 per cent spent their "excess savings" a long time ago, and only the top 20 per cent left the rest of the money from the trillions of COVID-19 stimulus packages.
