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通胀预期之高十年未见!美国市场最核心通胀指标“爆表”

Inflation expectations have not been seen for a decade! The core inflation indicator in the US market is "off the chart".

市場資訊 ·  Oct 21, 2021 20:56

The US market's measure of future inflation expectations has climbed to its highest level in a decade, driven by strong demand and rising energy prices.

On Thursday, the 10-year break-even inflation rate rose to 2.62%, the highest level since September 2012 and above the Fed's long-term inflation target of 2%. The five-year break-even inflation rate rose to 2.86 per cent, the highest level since March 2005.

Recently, rising fuel prices and congested ports have pushed energy costs to record highs, increasing inflationary pressures and pushing Qualcomm Inc sharply.Inflated expectations.

In response, the Financial Times quoted Faxing.Subadra Rajappa, head of US interest rate strategy at the bank, said:

The rise in long-term inflation expectations suggests that higher commodity prices may have a more lasting impact on inflation.

The rise in long-term inflation expectations suggests that higher commodity prices may have a more lasting impact on inflation.

In addition, the latest US consumer price index (CPI) has risen by more than 5 per cent year-on-year for the fifth month in a row. According to Rob Daly, head of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management:

From this point of view, US inflation will be persistent, no longer "temporary", but not necessarily "punitive".

From this point of view, US inflation will be persistent, no longer "temporary", but not necessarily "punitive".

The Fed has said publicly that it will not let inflation get out of control and expects to tighten monetary policy by reducing bond purchases by $120 billion a month.

Officials and markets generally predict that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next year.

For example, Jay Hatfield, founder and portfolio manager of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said:

Accelerating inflation could force the Fed to raise interest rates sharply next year.

Accelerating inflation could force the Fed to raise interest rates sharply next year.

However, some investors worry that higher interest rates will hinder the recovery of the US economy, especially as a result of rising commodity prices.

They believe that the current inflation situation in the United States is not the inflation that the Fed has always been willing to reduce by adjusting monetary policy, and doubt the Fed's commitment to combat rising inflation.

David Einhorn, founder and president of hedge fund Greenlight Capital, believes:

Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell has not taken any measures to combat inflation, the pressure of rising inflation has not improved, inflation has arrived, and it seems that it will worsen.

Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell has not taken any measures to combat inflation, the pressure of rising inflation has not improved, inflation has arrived, and it seems that it will worsen.

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