What is the reason why technology stocks don't smell good?
Recently, the A-share market has rotated more rapidly, with shipping, military, chemical, pig, dairy and other industries rising in turn, but technology stocks are still unknown. Looking back at 2019 and 2020, technology stocks are not only the "prettiest" in the A-share market, but also the "cradle of cattle stocks". Superimposing the current global chip shortage is still continuing, when will technology stocks rise? How long will it take to rise across the board?
The performance of technology stocks is weak in 2021.
From the perspective of market performance, according to the statistics of the Securities Times, the relatively popular sectors since 2020 are medicine, big consumption, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, lithium battery, chemical industry and so on. The technology stock index performed very brightly and steadily in 2019 and 2020, when the technology index beat the hot concept sector index of nearly 80% at that time, and the semiconductor industry index rose more than 80% in 2019.
From the beginning of this year to the latest October 22, the trend of technology stocks was weak, and some stocks retreated greatly. The chip and semiconductor industry index rose only about 20% over the same period. The science and technology 100 index rose less than 15% during the year. The phosphorus chemical index rose eight times over the same period. Especially since August, the pullback has been obvious. The semiconductor industry index and the chip index have all fallen by more than 15% since August, while the former has retreated by nearly 20%.
The return on investment of A-share technology sector surpasses that of the United States, and the market performance is quite
In the perception of investors, stable performance and low valuation have an upward effect on the company's stock price. From the perspective of semiconductors and semiconductor production equipment stocks (hereinafter referred to as the semiconductor industry), although the return on investment (return on net assets (average)) of A-shares exceeds that of US stocks, and the growth rate of performance (average) is also significantly higher than that of US stocks, however, the performance of A-share semiconductor market is basically the same as that of US stocks in 2021, only A-share semiconductor sector outperformed US stocks significantly in 2019.
From the perspective of subdivided technology hardware and equipment sectors, the performance growth of A shares is slightly lower than that of US stocks, and the return on investment of A shares is higher than that of US stocks; in the software services sector, the return on investment and performance growth of A shares are higher than those of US stocks, but the average rise of technology stocks in these two sectors since 2021 is lower than that of US stocks; among them, the average rise and decline of A shares in software and services sectors since 2021 is negative.
To sum up, it can be seen that the return on investment and performance growth of the A-share technology sector is better than that of the US stock technology sector. What is the reason why the A-share technology sector is slightly depressed this year?
Well-known institutions: semiconductor demand may be overestimated
From the perspective of fundamental data, Securities Times data Bao statistics found that the valuation of A-share technology sector significantly exceeded that of US stocks; among them, the average valuation of A-share semiconductor industry was close to 100 times, while the average valuation of US semiconductor industry stocks was less than half of the former. In the technology hardware and equipment sector, the average valuation of A shares is more than 63 times, while that of US stocks is no more than 50 times. Under the pressure of such a high valuation, the A-share technology sector obviously lacks momentum.
A number of institutions have recently issued an early warning to the semiconductor industry.Morgan StanleyIt said demand for semiconductors could be overvalued; it said demand for smartphones, televisions and computer semiconductors was weakening and that inventory of LCD-driven IC, niche memory and smartphone sensors would be problematic.
When will the inflection point arrive? the valuation is more than twice as high as the low point.
The trend of American technology stocks is worthy of reference. After World War II, the United States has experienced two major technological advances, one is the 20 years after World War II (1947-1969), the market test of production efficiency, as well as continuous orders, electronics, communications and other obvious technological progress; the second round (1980-2001), the rapid development of minicomputer and Internet software and hardware, and the rapid expansion of the number of Internet users. In both periods, individual stocks in the technology industry rose by more than 500%, and both substantially outperformed those in the non-tech sector.
For the Chinese science and technology sector, the performance of the US technology industry has some implications. In the 14th five-year Plan, scientific and technological innovation has been significantly deployed. Relevant leaders also mentioned that "at this stage of China's economic development, scientific and technological innovation is not only a development issue, but also a survival issue." Scientific and technological innovation is highly valued, soft technology: big data, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, hard technology: semiconductors, chips, etc., will become the main development direction. In particular, hard technology has become the most competitive field at home and abroad.
When will the inflection point arrive and when will technology stocks rebound? According to data Bao, according to the phased lows since 2019, on January 31, 2019, March 30, 2020, December 11, 2020, March 25, 2021, the average valuation (excluding the extreme value) of the semiconductor industry, technical hardware and equipment, software and services in A-share technology stocks is lower than the current one. On January 31, 2019, the average valuation of the semiconductor industry is less than 40 times, less than half of the current valuation. According to the comparison of valuations, the technology sector still has some room for a pullback from the low valuation, which is 1.6 times higher than on January 31, 2019, and it will take some time for the inflection point to come.
Intensive investigation of 20 low-valued semiconductor stock institutions
The performance of the sector is low, but technology stocks are closely watched by institutions. Securities Times data Bao statistics show that the latest valuation is less than 40 times, and the current valuation is lower than January 31, 2019. In the past three months, 20 technology stocks have been surveyed by more than 30 institutions, including TCL Technology, Industrial USI and Baotong Technology, which are valued less than 20 times.
Judging from the research situation in the past three months, five shares, such as Shengyi Technology, Voice Holdings, and Lixun Precision, have obtained more than 200 institutional surveys, and Shengyi Science and Technology has won 260 institutional surveys, with an average of more than 3 institutions per trading day. The company said that some customer orders were received from October to November, high-end consumer orders are also relatively long, and PCB customers are in better shape to take orders.
In terms of performance, it has been disclosed that among the stocks reported in the three quarters, the net profit of TCL Technology, ZTE Corporation and Shengyi Science and Technology increased higher in the first three quarters of 2021, and the first two shares are expected to double, of which the median increase in net profit of TCL Technology is 3.5%, mainly due to the fact that the prosperity of the semiconductor display industry is higher than that of the same period last year, continued production capacity growth, business and product structure optimization, semiconductor display business in the first three quarters of the year to achieve a year-on-year increase in the shipping area of more than 30%.
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