2021-10-28 Guosheng Securities Co., Ltd. Ju Xinghai, Xu Chengying, Yang Fanyi conducted research on Opal Lighting and issued a research report "2021Q3 revenue declined slightly, profitability is under pressure". This report gives a buy rating to Opu Lighting, the current share price is 19.16 yuan.
Opal Lighting (603515)
Event: the company released three quarterly reports for 2021. The company achieved revenue of 6.158 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, an increase of 17.74% and 6.73% over the same period in 2020 / 2019, and a net profit of 624 million yuan, an increase of 22.50% and 3.56% over the same period in 2020 / 2019. Among them, the single-quarter revenue of 21Q3 was 2.195 billion yuan, down 1.14% / 10.25% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of home was 182 million yuan, down 29.92% and 7.92% compared with the same period of 2020Q3/2019Q3.
With the multi-channel development of Jiazhao, revenue is expected to resume growth. Home photo business: it is expected to be negatively affected by the weakening of real estate completion. Offline channels continue to focus on the development of the sinking market. As of 21H1, more than 2000 Hydro-electric supermarkets / zones have been developed, and terminal store operations have been refined and multi-channel drainage has been carried out to achieve main push products and business growth of more than 100%. E-commerce channels actively cooperate with Huawei, XIAOMI and other third-party platforms to develop smart home products, and Q3 online intelligent products are expected to maintain high growth. Shangzhao business: the company won the bid for China Petroleum & Chemical Corp national collection project in the first half of the year, and the company is expected to further develop Shangzhao business by virtue of its strong scheme design ability and project management ability.
The cost pressure appears, and the profit pressure decreases. 21Q3's gross margin fell 4.23pct to 34.17%. It is mainly due to the rising prices of bulk products and the increasing pressure on the cost of raw materials. Rate side: the sales / management / R & D / financial rate of 21Q3 Company is 19.19%, 2.88%, 3.81%, 0.20%, and the year-on-year change is 0.20, 0.20, 0.05, 0.14 /-0.57 pct. Net interest rate: the company's 2021Q3 achieved a net interest rate of 8.37%, a year-on-year decline of 3.35pct, mainly due to a large decline in gross profit.
Cash flow has declined slightly and the overall asset risk can be controlled. The company's 21Q3 realized net operating cash flow of 212 million yuan in a single quarter, down 54.52% from the same period last year. We expect it to be related to the company's increase in raw material locking and Singles Day stock. The upstream and downstream accounts are relatively stable, of which accounts receivable is 444 million yuan, up 13.86% over the same period last year, and accounts received in advance (that is, contract liabilities) is 137 million yuan, an increase of 15.16% over the same period last year. Inventory was 939 million yuan, an increase of 22.21% over the same period last year.
Product iteration and brand building enhance competitiveness. Product side: the company continues to promote the construction of IPD to improve product stability, manufacturability and serviceability; at the same time, it is committed to technology research and development to achieve the application of GaN technology in lighting drive power supply, as well as the iterative upgrade of MR micro-edge technology. Brand side: the company will implant products into film and television works such as "Xiao she de" to enhance brand influence; participate in the compilation of "Architectural Decoration and Interior Space Lighting Design Application Standard" to help the development of the industry.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 9.98,11.47 and 1.347 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.7%, 14.9% and 17.4%, respectively. The company is the leader of home lighting, according to the construction of the second curve, to maintain the "buy" investment rating.
Risk hints: downside risks of real estate, lower-than-expected recovery of offline sales, and intensified online competition.
A total of 14 agencies have rated the stock in the last 90 days, including 7 buy ratings and 7 overweight ratings; the average institutional target price in the past 90 days is 32.62; according to the Securities Star valuation analysis tool, the Oppo Lighting (603515) good company has a rating of 3 stars, a good price rating of 3 stars and a comprehensive valuation rating of 3 stars.
