In 2021-11-03, Chen Meng of Shouchuang Securities Co., Ltd. conducted a research on Opal Lighting and issued a research report "Company brief Review report: Q3 business has steadily recovered, performance pressure has declined". This report gives a buy rating to Opu Lighting, and the current share price is 19.49 yuan.
Opal Lighting (603515)
Event: the company released its three-quarter report for 2021, with revenue of 6.158 billion yuan during the reporting period, + 17.74% year-on-year (an increase of 6.73% over the same period in 2019), and net profit of 624 million yuan, + 22.5% year-on-year (an increase of 3.56% over the same period in 2019).
Comments:
The operation has recovered steadily and the pressure on the performance side is obvious. The company's Q1/Q2/Q3 achieved revenue of RMB 2.195 billion respectively, compared with + 70.44%, 11.5%, 1.14% (10.25% compared with 2019Q1/Q2/Q3 score + 5.59%, 4.32%, and 10.25%), respectively, from a year-on-year comparison of + 70.44%, 11.5%, and 1.14%, respectively. Q1/Q2/Q3 now has a net profit of 1.35 million yuan and a profit of + 19.53% compared with the same period last year (compared with + 56.59% + 3.66% and 7.92% of 2019Q1/Q2/Q3 respectively), which turns into a profit and / or + 19.53% and 29.92% respectively over the same period of last year. The company's operating performance is in line with expectations. Among them, Q3 performance declined significantly compared with the same period last year, we believe that the main reason is the rise in the price of raw materials, with the early preparation of lower-priced raw materials gradually digested, cost-side pressure began to appear; second, the company continued to increase the rectification of retail stores, the relevant marketing expenses increased; third, the demand for home decoration was delayed last year due to the epidemic, and the base figure was higher in the same period. It is expected that with the deep cultivation of the company's channels and the further enhancement of brand influence, the company's management is expected to continue to improve.
The increase in the price and cost of raw materials has led to a decline in profitability. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company's gross profit margin was from-1.01pcpts to 36.54%, and the net profit margin was from + 0.44pcpts to 10.14%, of which the single Q3 gross profit margin was from-4.23pct to 34.71% (month-to-3.03pct), and the net profit margin was from-3.36pct to 8.27% year-on-year (month-to-5.68pct). We believe that the main reason is that the reserves of lower-priced raw materials have been gradually digested in the early period. The pressure on the cost side is prominent, and at the same time, channel optimization leads to the increase of marketing expenses. In the first three quarters, the company's sales / management and R & D / financial expense rates were year-on-year-0.96pcts/+0.03pcts/-0.32pcts to 19.72%, 7.15% and 0.21%, respectively. The company's operating capacity is basically stable, including accounts receivable turnover days decreased by 3.05 days to 19.3 days compared with the same period last year, accounts payable turnover days decreased by 20.02 days to 80.05 days compared with the same period last year, and inventory turnover days decreased by 5.12 days to 59.64 days compared with the same period last year.
Investment advice: LED lighting industry pattern continues to optimize, maintain the "buy" rating. At present, the world is in the process of LED lighting to replace traditional lighting, the industry space is large, the company is expected to benefit from the overall growth and concentration of the industry. Taking into account the increase in expenses related to the company's channel reform and the impact of the rise in raw material prices, we downgrade the company's profit forecast. The company's 2021-2023 net profit is expected to be RMB 9.27,10.06 million (the original forecast is RMB 9.96pm), corresponding to the current market capitalization PE is respectively times that of 16-13-11, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: fluctuations in raw material costs, repeated "COVID-19" epidemic, and sharp fluctuations in real estate sales.
A total of 15 agencies have rated the stock in the last 90 days, including 7 buy ratings and 8 overweight ratings; the average institutional target price in the past 90 days is 29.84; according to the Securities Star valuation analysis tool, the Oppo Lighting (603515) good company has a rating of 3 stars, a good price rating of 3 stars and a comprehensive valuation rating of 3 stars.
