Don't worry too much about inflation and don't underestimate price increases.

Recently, the prices of terminal products and necessities such as Anjing Food, Haitian Flavor Industry, negotiation Food, Zhongshun Jierou and Jinhe Industry have risen one after another, which has brought about a great impact on the market. Some people even worry about whether this will be a sign of coming inflation. If inflation comes, it will have a great impact on economic and social development, and it will also have an extremely adverse impact on the lives of the majority of residents.

What is particularly noteworthy is that in recent months, due to the continuous rise in commodity prices, PPI has continued to rise at a high level, with an increase of more than double digits. Although CPI is still in the "1" channel, it is mainly caused by the drop in pork prices. Despite the decline in pork prices, CPI is in the "2" channel. If pork prices resume rising, CPI will be even higher. More importantly, if the end products, including food, daily necessities production enterprises, all adopt the price increase strategy, the impact on CPI will be very obvious. Once CPI walks on the channel of "3" and above, the market's expectation of inflation will be relatively strong, which will lead to emotional inflation, material hoarding and other phenomena, which will push back the arrival of inflation.

Objectively speaking, according to the actual situation of money issuance and material supply in China, the probability of inflation is relatively small. At the very least, there will be no serious inflation. Because, even if there is a relatively large rise in commodity prices, it has a greater impact on the production costs of downstream enterprises. However, due to the ample supply of materials, the internal driving force for enterprises to raise prices is not very strong, and the strength is not very strong. Even if the price increases, the range will not be very large, the push on inflation is not very strong. Because, worried about losing the market after the price rise. Unless there is collusion between enterprises to raise prices, they generally will not take the lead in raising prices. And colluding to raise prices, market regulators will crack down. Under such circumstances, it is unlikely that inflation will occur.

However, this is not to say that there is no inflationary pressure in our country. We should know that in addition to the supply conditions of domestic products, the relationship between supply and demand, and the factors affecting the price, the international environment also has a great impact on the price. If there is a lot of imported inflationary pressure, it will sometimes lead to a rise in prices and an increase in inflation expectations. The price rise of some products in this round is to a large extent the performance of imported inflation, which is brought about by the impact of imported inflation on domestic production enterprises.

This also means that we should not worry too much about the coming of inflation, nor should we regard the rise in the prices of some products as a sign of coming inflation. However, the rising prices of end products such as food and daily necessities should not be overlooked. We should know that all these products are closely related to the life of the broad masses of residents and the improvement of their quality of life. If the prices of these products go up, the living standards of the residents will be affected. As a result, if vegetable prices and pork prices rise again, it will be real inflation for the broad masses of residents. What is inflation, that is, the decline of purchasing power and consumption power, thus affecting the quality and standard of life.

A few days ago, the Ministry of Commerce mentioned in the document to encourage families to store certain necessities of life, although it has been misread and over-interpreted, but in any case, this is also an effective means to prevent inflation. Because the international economic environment is still complex, and imported inflation is still relatively strong, if households can properly store some necessities of life, in the event of special weather, rising prices of daily necessities caused by rising commodity prices and other factors, residents are less likely to panic and will not cause panic prices. The negative impact of the rise in the price of daily necessities will be much smaller.

It is precisely because of this that we still need to pay enough attention to the current problems of some enterprises in adjusting product prices, and we should control the pace of product price increases in enterprises, and we should not rush to do so. Especially the enterprises of daily necessities must ensure that the price adjustment is moderate and the pace of price adjustment is orderly. When necessary, enterprises with daily necessities can be supported by means of taxation and credit, so as to avoid the enterprises of daily necessities from adjusting prices and prevent possible market shocks and impacts.

With the stabilization of commodity prices in the international market, especially the tightening of monetary and credit policy in the United States, there may be some improvement in the global supply situation and the disorderly rise in commodity prices will be brought under control. Imported inflationary pressures will also be reduced. In that case, the price increase motivation of enterprises with end products and daily necessities may also be weakened. However, due to the stability of the international market is not very strong, commodity prices have not entered a completely stable state. As a result, the risk of imported inflation remains strong. Under such circumstances, preventing imported inflation is also an important aspect that can not be ignored.

There is no doubt that doing a good job in connecting the supply of domestic products, opening up circulation channels, strengthening the docking of production and marketing, rational production distribution of pigs and vegetables, strengthening the release and transmission of market information, standardizing market order, and cracking down on hoarding will be very important aspects of stabilizing the market, stabilizing prices, stabilizing expectations, and ensuring that inflation does not occur. If it is done well, even if serious global inflation occurs, it will be able to maintain the stability of domestic market prices.