Since the second half of 2020, the shortage of chips has become the main theme of the semiconductor industry, which has affected the industries including automobile, mobile phone, game console, PC and so on. In 2021, the biggest nightmare of global car manufacturers is to lack core and reduce production. Although the passenger car market has begun to recover, automotive chip IDM and design companies have long been unable to grab production capacity in the third quarter of 2020, making it difficult for car companies to deliver.
In fact, from the recent reports of various institutions and securities firms, we can also see that the year-on-year growth rate of automotive semiconductors is significantly higher than that of other categories. According to Boston Consulting Group's research, it is estimated that the global demand for nearly 10 million vehicles in 2021 can not be met due to lack of core production, and it is estimated that the demand for 700-8 million vehicles will be postponed to 2022, which is equivalent to contributing to nearly 10 points of growth next year. Driven by higher shipments and average selling prices, the size of the global semiconductor market this year will grow by 23 per cent compared with the same period last year. As for manufacturers, the four major wafer-free manufacturers, AMD, MediaTek, NVIDIA Corp and Qualcomm Inc, will have the highest sales growth this year, with sales expected to grow by 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 54 per cent and 51 per cent respectively.
The third generation semiconductor Guochuang Hunan Center is unveiled.
The semiconductor industry is not only the foundation of the modern electronic information industry, but also an important industry to support the high-quality development of the national economy. With the rapid rise of "intelligent manufacturing in China" and the growing demand for industrial automation, digitalization and intelligent transformation, industrial software has become an indispensable part of the manufacturing process. At present, the road of domestic substitution is gradually clear, for the semiconductor industry, how to build a complete ecological chain and industrial chain has become the key.
On November 19, the unveiling ceremony of the National third Generation Semiconductor Technology Innovation Center (Hunan) was launched in Changsha, Hunan Province. On the same day, a number of co-construction units of the center signed the Agreement on the Co-Construction of the National Chuang Hunan Center, which will closely follow the major national strategy and regional scientific and technological needs, focus on common technologies and major bottlenecks, and break through the core technology. support the third-generation semiconductor industry to move towards the middle and high end. According to the plan, by 2025, the National Chuangchuang Center (Hunan) plans to drive the annual output value of Hunan's third-generation semiconductor industry to 10 billion yuan, and to establish and improve a complete set of standards for the design, manufacture and verification of domestic equipment. By 2030, it is planned to drive the annual output value of Hunan's third-generation semiconductor industry to 100 billion yuan, so as to realize the positive orientation of equipment design, the autonomy of core technology, the integration of equipment process, and the intellectualization of manufacturing process.
It is worth noting that the pulling effect of electric vehicles on semiconductors is currently receiving more and more attention from the market, and the accelerated penetration of electric smart vehicles will become the core driving force for the rapid growth of the vehicle semiconductor industry. At present, the pulling effect of new energy vehicles on semiconductors mainly reflects the fields of power semiconductors, passive components and so on. 1. Assuming that the global passenger car market grows by 1% a year, and that new energy vehicles account for 25% of the global passenger car market in 2025, it is estimated that by 2025, the demand for thin film capacitors in the new energy vehicle market will increase by nearly 10.778 billion yuan. 2. In new energy vehicles, the value of power semiconductors has increased greatly, of which IGBT accounts for about 37% of the cost of the electronic control system of new energy vehicles, and is the core electronic device of the electronic control system. The demand side benefits from the outbreak of new energy vehicles, automotive semiconductors or the most magnanimous semiconductor industry in the future. According to McKinsey statistics, the domestic automotive semiconductor industry is expected to reach US $18 billion in 2025 and US $29 billion by 2030.
In addition, Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, also said a few days ago that in the semiconductor field, the demand for semiconductors for electric vehicles is 5-10 times higher than that for traditional cars. Wang Chuanfu predicts that sales of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market are expected to exceed 3.3 million this year, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 35 per cent by the end of next year.
Chip shortage persists semiconductor sector continues to soar
Affected by the epidemic situation of COVID-19, the crisis of semiconductor supply chain is becoming more and more serious. Recently, industry insiders said that Toshiba will increase some of its products in 2022, accompanied by an English price increase letter. According to the price increase letter, Toshiba told customers on November 16 that the price increase for photocouplers would begin in January 2022. In addition, according to Taiwanese media reports, United Microelectronics Corp, a world-renowned wafer foundry company, will continue to raise chip foundry prices by about 10% in the first quarter of next year, and the new offer will apply to orders from its top three customers. And
With the increase in the costs of raw materials, wafer wafers, closed testing, logistics, and labor, other wafer foundry companies, such as Liddanc, grid core, and world-advanced wafer foundry, have recently informed customers that they will increase their foundry prices again in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of about 8%, 10%, and more than 10% for some popular processes.
Judging from the current trend of continuous price increases in wafer generation factories, the world is still in a state of chip supply falling short of demand, and now most of the wafer generation factories have already guaranteed their production capacity for next year, and the current chip shortage continues. According to overseas industry information, the chip shortage will continue until at least the second half of 2022. Subsequently, the benefits of the semiconductor sector are springing up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. South Korea strongly supports semiconductors and batteries, and Japan wants to invest in building factories. Intel Corp wants to help Qualcomm Inc and so on.
According to the Guojin Securities Research report, the penetration rate of electric vehicles has continued to increase in recent years, but the gap in automotive semiconductors is still widening. It is estimated that in the next 15 years, the compound growth rate of the global automotive semiconductor market may exceed 20% in 2020-2035 (1-2% CAGR comes from the growth of the global auto market, 9-11% CAGR comes from the increase in the number of chips per vehicle, and 8-10% CAGR comes from the increase in the average unit price of chips). Far more than 5-6% of the compound growth rate of the global semiconductor market at the same time, the value of semiconductors per car has soared tenfold from $268 in 2020 to $2758 in 2035. Compared with silicon carbide chip, SiC silicon carbide chip for vehicles can improve energy efficiency, improve battery life and reduce the cost of battery capacity per unit of mileage, which may replace IGBT silicon-based power devices in 2025. Driven by the huge demand for new energy vehicles and driven by areas such as power equipment, the market size of silicon carbide power devices is expected to exceed $10 billion by 2027, according to IHSMarkit. The market space of automotive semiconductors is huge, and the strong application companies that focus on include NVIDIA Corp's taxi self-driving chip system, Tesla, Inc. 's passenger car self-driving chip system, Lumentum lidar light source and so on.
In terms of the secondary market, the semiconductor sector once again refreshed before the high. On November 22nd, semiconductors and components continued to rise, with the third-generation semiconductor index rising nearly 5%, continuing to hit an all-time high. In terms of individual stocks, Yang Jie Technology (300373.CN), Jucan Optoelectronics (300708.CN) and Zuojiang Technology (300799.CN) rose 20%, Galaxy Micropower (688689.CN) rose about 19%, Nagagawa Technology (300604.CN) rose more than 15%, Jet Micropower (300623.CN), Taiwan Foundation shares (300046.CN), Yingtang Intelligence Control (300131.CN) rose more than 10%, Crystal Technology (603005.CN), 605117.CN and other shares rose by the daily limit. Tiantong shares (600330.CN), Perry shares (300831.CN) and so on rose sharply.