What is the Santa Claus rally?
What is the Santa Claus rally?
Key takeaways
主要外賣
The Santa Claus rally describes a rise in the stock market over the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January
The seven-day combo yielded positive returns for nearly 78% of the time from 1950 to 2019
What causes this rally exactly is still unknown — possible explanations include optimism fueled by the holiday spirit and pessimistic investors taking vacations during this time
聖誕老人漲勢描述了股市在12月的最後5個交易日和1月的頭兩個交易日的上漲。
從1950年到2019年,為期7天的組合有近78%的時間實現了正回報
究竟是什麼原因導致了這波漲勢仍不得而知??可能的解釋包括節日氣氛引發的樂觀情緒和悲觀的投資者在這段時間度假。
Understanding the Santa Claus rally
理解聖誕老人集會
The Santa Claus rally was first recorded by Yale Hirsch in his Stock Trader's Almanac in 1972.
1972年,耶魯·赫希(Yale Hirsch)在他的《股票交易者年鑑》(Stock Trader‘s Almanac)中首次記錄了聖誕老人的漲勢。
A Santa Claus rally is a calendar effect that involves a rise in stock prices during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January.
聖誕老人反彈是一種日曆效應,涉及12月份最後5個交易日和次年1月份前2個交易日的股價上漲。
According to LPL Research, this seven-day trading period is the second-best stretch for equities at any point in the year, with an average 1.33% gain from 1950 to 2019. Moreover, the seven-day combo yielded positive returns for nearly 78% of the time.
根據LPL Research的數據,這七天的交易期是一年中任何時候股市表現第二好的時期,1950年至2019年的平均漲幅為1.33%。此外,七天的組合有近78%的時間實現了正回報。
(Source: LPL Research)
(來源:LPL Research)
Even though historical data give us a clue, it's important to remember that past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
儘管歷史數據給了我們線索,但重要的是要記住,過去的表現並不能保證未來的回報。
What causes a Santa Claus rally?
是什麼導致了聖誕老人集會?
There is no generally accepted explanation for the phenomenon.
對於這一現象,目前還沒有普遍接受的解釋。
The rally is sometimes attributed to the following:
這一漲勢有時被歸因於以下幾點:
Investors invest with holiday bonuses;
Increased investor purchases in anticipation of the January effect;
Optimism fueled by the holiday spirit;
The vocation-led lighter volume makes it easier to move the market higher;
A slowdown in tax-loss harvesting that depresses prices at the beginning of December;
Some very large institutional investors, which are more sophisticated and pessimistic, tend to go on vacation at this time.
投資者用假期獎金進行投資;
投資者因預期1月效應而增加買入;
節日精神激發的樂觀情緒;
行業主導的清淡成交量使市場更容易走高;
12月初,減税收成放緩,壓低了價格;
一些非常大的機構投資者更老練、更悲觀,往往在這個時候休假。
For more investment knowledge and trends, welcome to Courses in the Community
欲瞭解更多投資知識和趨勢,歡迎訪問課程在社區中