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2022年投资展望:聚焦数字化核心主线,关注金蝶国际、微盟等

Investment outlook in 2022: focus on digital core line, pay attention to Kingdee International Software Group, Weimeng, etc.

中信證券研究 ·  Dec 28, 2021 01:53

Source: CITIC study

Author: Yang Ze Yuan Ding Qi

Focus on the digital core line and grasp the opportunity of plate inflection point. The accelerated development of digital transformation, combined with policy support, fundamental improvement and other factors, will continue to highlight investment opportunities in the computer industry and maintain the sector's "stronger than the market" rating. It is recommended to focus on the core enterprises with long-term competitiveness in cloud computing, industrial software, smart cars, financial IT, energy IT, information security, health care IT, education IT, consumer IT and other segments of the three main lines (core cornerstone / right side of the boom / left side of the inflection point).

Digitized into the computer 2022 core main line, the plate ushered in the configuration level new inflection point opportunity.

1) multiple positive support:Under the change of population structure, the necessity of digitization is highlighted, the epidemic telecommuting catalyses the digitization process, the "new infrastructure" brings certainty increment, the "14th five-year Plan" focuses on digital development, and the industry ushered in a new round of growth cycle

2) the value trend is clear:Digital empowering enterprises can reduce costs and increase efficiency. Excellent computer companies are gradually promoting business models and digital upgrading through the construction of their own R & D investment and sales management competitiveness.

3) the growth trend is clear:The 21Q3 performance of the computer industry has an obvious inflection point, and is expected to take digitization as the core main line, characterized by medium and high speed (20% +) / sustainable / high cash, resulting in healthy growth for more than 6 quarters.

The digital wave draws the blueprint of opportunity, and a hundred flowers blossom in the computer industry.

Horizontally, the computer industry is divided into four parts: cloud General SaaS, Cloud Infrastructure, Intelligent Network connection, and Industrial Internet. Vertically, scientific and technological progress has brought computer companies' business model and digital upgrading. As enterprises move from the headline mode-> production-> cloud-> intelligence-> industrial interconnection, the industry's discourse power, bargaining power and product competitiveness are gradually enhanced. In the above framework, we focus on recommending three main lines and nine core sub-area opportunities: including

1) main line 1: the core cornerstone of the plate, cloud computing represented by SaaS, providing digital services to the whole industry.

2) main line 2: industrial software, intelligent cars, finance, etc., which have a continuous high boom on the right and resonate with the technological innovation cycle.

3) main line 3: information security at the inflection point of the recommended layout on the left, medical IT, etc.

Risk factors:

The uncertainty of the global epidemic; the risk that the development and process of digital technology falls short of expectations; the risk that domestic government and enterprises'IT expenditure falls short of expectations; the intensification of international trade frictions; the risk that relevant industrial policies do not meet expectations; the risk of large fluctuations in overseas markets, and so on.

Investment suggestion: focus on the digital core main line and grasp the opportunity of plate inflection point.

The accelerated development of digital transformation, combined with policy support, fundamental improvement and other factors, will continue to highlight investment opportunities in the computer industry and maintain the sector's "stronger than the market" rating. It is recommended to focus on the core enterprises with long-term competitiveness in cloud computing, industrial software, smart cars, financial IT, energy IT, information security, health care IT, education IT, consumer IT and other segments of the three main lines (core cornerstone / right side of the boom / left side of the inflection point).

Core concerns include: Jinshan Office, user Network, Kingdee International Software Group, tax Friends, Pan-Micro Network, Guanglianda, Ming Yuan Cloud Group, Zhongwang Software, China Control Technology, EDA leader, Desai Xiwei, Zhongke Chuangda, Hang Seng Electronics, Yuxin Technology, Changliang Technology, Langxin Technology, Henghua Technology, convincing, Anheng Information, Qi Anxin, Weining Health, Entrepreneurship Huikang, iFLYTEK, Shiji Information, China Youkang, Weimeng Group.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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