Source: Securities Star

In recent years, China has been known as the "infrastructure maniac" for a series of large-scale infrastructure and super projects. Roads and high-speed railways run across the north and south, and bridges climb over mountains and seas, stunning the world.

As a "capital construction madman", active infrastructure investment policies are launched intensively in various parts of our country at the beginning of every year, and this year is no exception. According to incomplete statistics, as of January10The total investment scale of major projects in various parts of China has exceeded 3 trillion yuan.

Among them, a number of provinces and cities, including Hebei, Guangdong, Heilongjiang, Zhejiang, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shanghai, Sichuan, Xiamen and other provinces and cities held a concentrated start ceremony of major projects, sounding the clarion call for the start of the project in 2022.

From the perspective of investment projects, in addition to traditional infrastructure projects in the fields of infrastructure, people's livelihood and social undertakings, new infrastructure such as 5G network, industrial Internet, Internet of things, artificial intelligence and big data Center have become key investment areas for all parties.

Special treasury bonds are expected to be issued in 2022

The Central Economic work Conference clearly pointed out that economic work in 2022 should be "stable and strive for progress in the midst of stability." Based on this, the current market expectations for stable growth of infrastructure at the beginning of the year continue to rise. Since the beginning of the year, the relevant sectors of the "major infrastructure" of the capital market have been active again.

CITIC recently released a report saying that combined with the actual situation and data analysis, the growth rate of full-caliber capital expenditure for infrastructure construction is 3-6 months ahead of the growth rate of infrastructure construction. It is expected that infrastructure investment will be realized in the first quarter.7%With about high single-digit growth, the growth rate of infrastructure for the whole year will also be about 6.5%, which is significantly higher than that of the same period last year and the whole year.（Eliminate the cardinality).

In addition, considering that the total amount of treasury bonds maturing this year is about 950 billion yuan, and the issuance of special treasury bonds for infrastructure deficiencies in the context of steady growth can further strengthen the "counter-cyclical" adjustment, and it is also a source of financial revenue while "reducing taxes and fees". CITIC believes that2022There is the possibility of issuing special treasury bonds in 2008.

At present, the policy focus on "stabilizing growth" and the issuance of special treasury bonds to make up for deficiencies in capital construction can further strengthen the "counter-cyclical" adjustment, make fiscal policy more positive and promising, and further strengthen the role of infrastructure in stabilizing the economy and promoting growth. If the special treasury bonds are used for infrastructure investment after issuance, assuming that the scale of investment in capital construction reaches 300 billion, the growth rate of infrastructure investment for the whole year is expected to increase by about1.5One percent.

Cement operating rate recovers

Judging from the government work reports issued by various localities and the work plan for 2022 announced by the local development and reform commissions, actively promoting the construction of the project to ensure a "good start" of investment in the first quarter has become a key task.

From the perspective of infrastructure direction, this centralized construction covers both traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure, both of which have become remarkable features. Traditional infrastructure direction, urban renewal, transportation and urban pipe corridors are the key directions of this centralized construction. Cement and B-end pipes will especially benefit.

From a regional point of view, in the three northern regions, after New Year's Day in central and southern Hebei, some cement enterprises opened the kiln and resumed production, mainly because of the heavy pollution weather, the kiln was stopped vigorously, and the manufacturers opened the kiln to replenish the inventory in the early stage; in central China, New Year's Day in Henan began to open the kiln, as usual, the kiln will be opened in January to resume production, but considering the current demand situation, inventory pressure may force most manufacturers to stop kiln ahead of time. Supply and demand in southwest China are both weak, a number of leading enterprises have lowered product prices, and many provincial markets have continued to decline; in South China, the Pearl River Delta has continuously declined, demand is still weak, and the market has continued to adjust downwards; in East China, a number of enterprises have listed to revise their prices by a range of60Yuan-130 yuan, the price is reduced at this time in order to continue to adjust prices in the peak demand season after the beginning of spring.

According to the research report of Bank of China Securities, in terms of cement operating rate, the operating rate of the mill and the clinker storage ratio are 53.3% and 53.3% respectively.56.4%Increased by 8.3% and 8.3% respectively.0.3%. The operating rate of the mill has increased a lot, mainly due to the increase in the demand for work before the end of the year.

At present, the price of coal has fallen back to about 820 yuan. Although the price of cement has fallen in the off-season, the price difference between water and coal remains at300More than RMB, it is still at a relatively high level in history, and the profit space of the cement industry is still large.

Real estate and infrastructure are the locomotives that drive the steel and cement markets. if a large number of infrastructure projects can be successfully landed in 2022, it will certainly bring certain benefits to the steel, cement and other building materials industries, but at present, whether they can drive up prices depends on whether infrastructure investment can hedge against the decline in real estate investment.

Northbound funds to increase positions in the infrastructure industry

Judging from the northward capital flow last week, the capital began to significantly favor the traditional infrastructure industry, with the steel, architectural decoration, building materials, machinery and equipment industries all receiving northward capital increase. Among them, the month-on-month growth rates of iron and steel, building decoration and real estate industry were 6.72% and 6.72% respectively.6.67%、5.97%。

It is worth noting that Sany heavy Industry, which is jokingly known as "Eryi heavy Industry" because of its continuous pullback in 2021, received the highest amount of net purchases from northward funds last week, reaching11.7100 million yuan. In addition, Anhui Conch Cement, China Construction and other infrastructure-related stocks also received a net purchase of more than 100 million yuan from northward funds.

At present, stable investment is the main focus of stable growth, new and old infrastructure work together, infrastructure inflection point has arrived. Minsheng Securities analysis said that taking into account factors such as the fiscal carry-over and the early issuance of special bonds than in previous years, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first quarter of this year will be significantly higher than the seasonal growth rate, with a neutral forecast growth rate of 10%.

Infrastructure investment will continue to pick up

On the whole, under the circumstances of long project reserve time and solid foundation, the impact of various disturbance factors on infrastructure investment this year is relatively small.

Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst at Cinda Securities, believes that considering the low base, it is expected to be 2022.2The growth rate of infrastructure investment rebounded significantly in March, reaching a peak.15%The growth rate has stabilized and rebounded in the second half of the year, reaching 7% for the whole year.8%。

Zhongtai Securities said that under steady growth, infrastructure investment is expected to exceed expectations and attach importance to the infrastructure chain in the short term; it is optimistic about investment opportunities for brand building materials and new materials throughout the year; the real estate chain is expected to be repaired under the marginal improvement of real estate policy. and price increases gradually landing / raw material prices fall, brand building materials gradually enter the layout point, leading high certainty.

Carbon fiber industry, carbon fiber / quartz sand/Glass fiber scene demeanor continues, you can pay attention to Guangwei compound material, Jilin chemical fiber, medium Jane science and technology, Hengshen shares, Zhongliang science and technology, Jinbo shares; consumer building materials direction, you can pay attention to Beixin building materials, Oriental Yuhong, Jianlang hardware, three trees, Mona Lisa, Keshun shares; quartz glass industry, you can pay attention to quartz shares, Filihua; glass industry, you can pay attention to Qibin Group, Southern Glass A, Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass.

In addition, the real estate expected marginal improvement + special debt issuance acceleration is expected to support cement demand, the current cement plate valuation performance-to-price ratio is high, preferred to increase the logic of the leader, you can pay attention to Huaxin cement, Anhui Conch Cement, Tabai Group, Tianshan shares, Shangfeng cement, evergreen; the cost end of the superplasticizer plate is declining rapidly, the first choice is the leading Subot with new category expansion logic; the direction of the export chain can pay attention to the new walrus materials.