The China Electric vehicle Centenary Forum (2022) was held in Beijing from March 25 to 27. The theme of this forum is: to meet the new stage of market-oriented development of new energy vehicles. Among them, not only the relevant responsible persons from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Construction and other departments revealed the policy ideas for the next step to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry, but also the leaders in the industry talked freely about the problems of industrial development and the future.

The voice of the relevant responsible persons of many ministries and commissions

1. Optimize the industrial layout

Lin Nianxiu, vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, mentioned that it is necessary to adhere to a national game of chess and strive to optimize the industrial layout.

First, in accordance with the principle of subject concentration and regional agglomeration, we should guide industries to gather to regions and main bodies with a good foundation for development and full utilization of production capacity, focusing on building internationally competitive industrial clusters in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu and Chongqing and other regions.

Second, encourage and guide key areas to formulate industrial development plans, rely on existing capacity to develop new energy vehicles, ensure that project construction is standardized and orderly, vehicle enterprises should highlight the key layout, rely on the agglomeration and development of existing production bases, and no new production capacity will be added before the existing base reaches a reasonable scale. "New energy vehicles must follow the road of (concentration of main bodies and regional agglomeration), and should not be too fragmented, so we encourage a key enterprise to reach a certain scale in one place and build a second point, and the overall layout of the whole country should not blossom everywhere. "

Third, strictly implement the regulations on investment management in the automobile industry, strengthen the clean-up and rectification of illegal projects of new energy vehicles, and investigate and deal with violations such as construction without approval, zero approval and construction while approving in accordance with the rules and regulations.

Fourth, standardize the merger and reorganization of vehicle enterprises, vigorously promote the withdrawal of backward enterprises and invalid production capacity, and build an industrial pattern with reasonable layout, orderly development and efficient operation.

Lin Nianxiu said: since 2022, China has completely lifted restrictions on foreign investment in the automobile sector, the automobile and other manufacturing sectors, especially new energy vehicles, have been deepening their opening up to the outside world, and a number of major foreign-funded projects are speeding up the construction of new energy vehicles.

2. Organize forces to tackle key problems.

Xiang Libin, vice minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, also talked about organizing efforts to tackle key problems in view of the pain points and difficulties faced by the current industry, and adopting methods such as "uncovering the list" to support relevant enterprises in the research and development of high-safety, all-climate power battery system technology. we will carry out key technologies such as cobalt-free power batteries and low-weight rare earth permanent magnet drive motors, and strengthen the research and development of battery echelon utilization technology. Support the coordination of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain in tackling key technical problems, platform building, standard formulation, testing and evaluation, and chip boarding.

3. Deeply explore the coordinated development of automobile and city.

Jiang Wanrong of the Ministry of Housing and Construction said that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will jointly implement the urban renewal campaign with relevant departments, and rely on the pilot project of coordinated development of smart city infrastructure and intelligent networks. we will deeply explore the ways and methods to realize the coordinated development of cars and cities, and constantly improve the carrying capacity, livability and tolerance of the city.

The first is to deepen the pilot project of the coordinated development of smart city infrastructure and intelligent network vehicles; the second is to explore new models for the construction and operation of urban smart infrastructure; the third is to promote the interconnection of car city data; the fourth is to promote the reconstruction of the city's transportation system; the fifth is to increase the intensity of scientific and technological innovation. We will promote the construction of a number of scientific and technological innovation centers and laboratories for urban and rural construction, speed up a series of key low-carbon and digital technologies, including smart city infrastructure and intelligent network-connected automobile development technology, and accelerate the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements in cities.

The industry bosses talk freely.

1. BYD Wang Chuanfu: put forward three suggestions

First, I hope to clarify the preferential policies for new energy vehicles in the post-subsidy era. It is suggested that the purchase and reduction policy of new energy vehicles can be extended to maintain the stability of the policy during the 14th five-year Plan period. at the same time, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high last year, there was a serious imbalance between supply and demand, and prices fluctuated sharply, which was disadvantageous to the development of the industry. it is suggested that we should refer to the grain reserve adjustment mechanism of agriculture, adjust the balance between supply and demand, increase the predictability of integral prices, and ensure the effective operation of the double points policy.

Second, adhere to pure electric and plug-in mixed two-legged walking. Plug-in hybrid is an important way to achieve the dual-carbon goal, and the change is relatively mild, which is conducive to the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain, and achieve a smooth transition from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles.

Third, adhere to lithium iron phosphate as the correct path of development. It is suggested to comprehensively sort out the unsuitable production capacity of lithium carbonate resources, increase domestic exploitation and foreign imports, maintain market supply and demand, stabilize price expectations, and promote the healthy and safe development of the industry.

2. Zhu Huarong of Changan Automobile: talking about the existing problems

First, it is suggested that the government should strengthen the construction of infrastructure such as overall layout, coordinated development of industries, and speed up recharging, study and solve the problem of increasing power capacity caused by the increase in electricity consumption in old residential areas, and speed up the construction of charging infrastructure and power transformation. we will promote the two-line development of charging and recharging, and solve the problem of high electricity consumption for travel. Electricity booking and planning are carried out by means of information technology to realize the balanced distribution and efficient utilization of charging piles and changing stations.

Second, it is suggested that the state should strengthen unified planning and guidance, strengthen the layout of overseas resources for lithium, cobalt, nickel and other power battery raw materials, and guide domestic enterprises and industrial chains to form the ability to exploit and purify core resources. at the same time, continue to improve the power battery recycling management system.

Third, it is suggested that the industry should increase basic research and develop the core technology of high-efficiency batteries to thoroughly solve the hidden problems of charging efficiency and safety. Relevant industry organizations take the lead, aggregate enterprises to form a joint force, speed up the research and development of new batteries, strengthen the research and research of key technologies such as positive and negative materials and electrolytes for power batteries, and fundamentally solve users' charging anxiety and safety worries. thoroughly solve the convenience of the use of new energy vehicles.

3. Li Auto Inc. Li Xiang: new energy vehicles occupy the two most important technical points at the same time.

He believes that the development of human productivity and production technology is based on two levels of development, one is the development of energy, that is, the way of energy acquisition and energy processing. The other is the development of information, that is, the way of obtaining information and the way of processing information. What is special is that new energy vehicles occupy these two most important technical points at the same time.

4. XPeng Inc. and he Xiaopeng: the second half of smart driving is coming soon.

He Xiaopeng pointed out at the meeting that the second half of smart driving will come soon, and once the second half of smart driving arrives, when the closed loop of the data and the closed loop of the local map are better, the possibility of self-driving will really begin soon.

He said that starting from 2023, we will enter a new era and enter the era of co-driving. XPeng Inc. may begin our transition to self-driving in 2026. At the same time, he called for more policies and regulations in the industry to prepare ahead of time for the arrival of this era.

/ / the industry chain of new energy vehicles is very wide / /

Overall, the new energy vehicle industry chain covers a wide range of companies involved. Wind data show that the upstream of the industrial chain includes lithium ore, electrolyte, positive and negative materials, diaphragm and so on, and there are many related listed companies. Such as: Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi lithium industry, western mining, divine materials and so on.

The middle reaches of the industrial chain include battery, electric control, motor, thermal management, circuit system and so on. Among them, there are expected to be more than 100 listed companies at home and abroad, such as Ningde era, Tianneng Power, BYD, Desai Battery, Siemens, Hitachi and so on.

The downstream is mainly the major automobile enterprises and charging pile companies of automobile production. Established traditional car companies: Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Geely, SAIC, Changan, etc.; emerging car companies: Tesla, Inc., NIO Inc., XPeng Inc., etc.; A-share charging pile companies: Autexun, Tred, etc.

From the perspective of market performance, the Wind New Energy vehicle concept Index rose from a low of 1493 in February 2020 to a peak of 4484 in December 2021, with a cumulative increase of 200%. After the big increase in the past two yearsNew energy vehicles have been greatly adjusted since the beginning of this year, and the plate has now fallen 20.70%, which is greater than the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index in the same period.

Are there any investment opportunities in the future?

Liu Hongchen of Guohai Securities believes that the rising price tide will be a reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, and the market share will be further concentrated to high-quality brands. Price increases often affect consumers' short-term decisions.In the medium and long term, consumer psychological price expectations will also change with the overall market price environment changes.

In February 2022, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles rose to 21.6%, the automobile industry changed, the gross profit margins of Tesla, Inc. and New Power continued to rise, and the performance of Tesla, Inc. 's domestic suppliers generally grew rapidly. Tesla, Inc. wave brought vehicle valuation revaluation, NOA function redefinition of smart vehicles triggered an arms race, hardware stacking, and there is plenty of room for domestic alternatives. Maintain the "recommended" rating of the automotive industry.

Zheng Liansheng of Bohai Securities believes that the country's original intention to continue the development of new energy vehicles has not changed. Although model prices have been raised one after another due to subsidies and price adjustment of power batteries since the beginning of the year, and the industry is expected to face certain pressure for rapid growth, it is believed that the logic of supply stimulating demand this year will continue to deduce, and the outstanding orders accumulated by hot-selling models last year will be delivered one after another in the first half of the year, so this year's sales expectations are not pessimistic. Among them, this year, A-class cars and hybrids will effectively supplement the model product line, which is expected to contribute to the main increment.The global new energy vehicle market will continue to grow rapidly under the leadership of China, Europe and the United States.

To sum up, look good:

1. China has entered and bound international car companies such as Tesla, Inc. and Volkswagen, as well as companies with new car-building forces and strong independent brand supply chains.

2. Enter the supply chain enterprises of leading battery manufacturers at home and abroad, such as Panasonic, LG Energy Solution, Ningde era and Fudi Battery.

3. Independent car enterprises that continuously improve their technology and stand out in the fierce competition.

In terms of smart cars, the current cooperation between science and technology giants and car companies continues to advance, and China's intelligent electric vehicle market will show a pattern of diversified competition in the future. with the significant increase in the supply of domestic smart vehicles (a number of new smart models are expected to be unveiled at this year's Beijing Auto Show), the industrial development shows an accelerated trend. It is suggested that we should pay attention to two main lines: 1. Huawei automobile industry chain thematic opportunities. 2) the demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors will continue to increase, and the permeability of smart lights / intelligent cockpit / air suspension will continue to increase.

Oriental Securities Lu Rixin, Li Mengqiang, Lin Yu analysis that lithium and other core metal materials continue to rise in prices, is bound to cause car companies to raise prices for the second time, and then affect the overall sales. However, in the case of strong demand for new energy vehicles, the concentration of scarce resources to the head enterprises is conducive to the continuous optimization of the industry pattern, the leading pressure capacity of each link is stronger, and the gap is likely to be further widened.

Short-term contradictions do not affect the medium-and long-term trend of new energy vehicles. The strong consumption of electric vehicles is the result of comparison with fuel vehicles, and when the upstream returns to normal prices, sales will continue to grow at a high speed.