By Anna Hirtenstein and Gunjan Banerji
Uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy and the war in Ukraine pushed the S&P 500 toward weekly losses and stoked a selloff in the government bond market.
The broad stock-market gauge lost 11.93 points, or 0.3%, to 4488.28 Friday. The tech-heavy $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$ declined 186.30 points, or 1.3%, to 13711.00. The blue-chip $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$ reversed early losses to close up 137.55 points, or 0.4%, to 34721.12.
All three major indexes ended the week with losses. The S&P 500 snapped a three-week winning streak that had sent it toward its best performance since November 2020, losing 1.3%. The Dow and Nasdaq lost 0.3% and 3.9%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped to the highest level since March 2019 as bond prices tumbled.
Throughout the week, investors remained preoccupied with commentary from Federal Reserve officials as well as the minutes from the central bank's March policy meeting, Those minutes showed that policy makers had considered raising interest rates and unwinding its balance sheet faster, driving stocks lower.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Thursday that the central bank is behind on its mission to tame inflation and will likely have to act fairly forcefully to get price pressures under control.
The swings in assets across the market highlight how murky the path of the economy remains for many investors, who are trying to pick the winners and losers of the rising interest-rate regime and grappling with surging commodity prices worldwide.
"The Fed has been the number-one story and that continues," said James Athey, an investment manager at Abrdn. "The effect of the sort of tightening that has been discussed, that has a history of being very destabilizing."
A rapid jump in bond yields has led some investors and analysts to wonder whether the rise in yields will chip away at stock returns, and at what point investors will opt to ditch stocks in favor of bonds. Some investors have grown worried that the central bank's interest rate hikes will drive a recession just two years after the U.S. exited the last downturn.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose for a sixth consecutive day to 2.713%. Shorter-dated bond yields also advanced, with the two-year yield rising to 2.518% and notching a fifth consecutive week of gains. The two-year yield recorded its biggest five-week gain since May 1987.
Although yield levels are still fairly low, if they rise fast enough, can equities withstand such a monetary shock?"
-wrote Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, in a note to clients on Thursday.
Mr. Paulsen said that in the last three months, yields have risen faster than nearly 97% of all three-month periods since 1950. Still, he said, stocks have typically done well when the 10-year Treasury yield has been below 3% and until it rises to around 4%.
Some tech-heavyweights that had rebounded lately pulled back in recent sessions. $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ shares lost 5.6% this week, while Google-parent $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US)$ shed 4.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq badly underperformed its peers, continuing a trend from earlier in the year.
Investors have also had to analyze mixed signals stemming from different parts of the market. The bond market, for example, was recently flashing a signal that a recession may be on the horizon. And transportation stocks, which are often viewed as an indicator of the health of the economy, have been tumbling.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average, which tracks 20 large U.S. companies ranging from delivery giant $United Parcel Service(UPS.US)$ to railroad operator $Union Pacific(UNP.US)$, has fallen 11% to start the month, while the Dow industrials broadly are down about 0.1%. Companies that operate things like trains and planes tend to see higher demand when consumers are ramping up spending on travel and other goods and the economic outlook is brighter.
The war in Ukraine has also continued to weigh on markets. Allegations of war crimes by Russian troops against civilians prompted a new round of sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union this week. The United Nations General Assembly on Thursday voted to suspend Russia from its Human Rights Council.
Despite the recent volatility and signals from the bond market, major indexes have rapidly ascended from their lows in March. The S&P 500 has gained 7.6% since its March low in a broad-based rally. Some investors have said that stocks remain attractive even though Treasury yields have jumped.
"If you want to grow your buying power over the next 10 years, I can't think of a better place to do it than equities," said Dev Kantesaria, founder of Valley Forge Capital. "We have been buying more of the companies that are in our portfolio. We are close to 0% cash."
In commodities, prices for palladium and platinum jumped after the body that oversees London's market for the metals said it would bar metal produced by two major refining companies owned by the Russian government. Meanwhile, the United Nations on Friday said global food prices hit a record high in March.
Oil prices edged lower, with global benchmark Brent crude dropping for the second consecutive week to trade at $102.78 after losing 1.5%. Traders are assessing the impact of sanctions and self-sanctioning measures by energy companies on Russian oil exports and the release of strategic reserves by member nations of the International Energy Agency.
Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 closed Friday up 1.3%, finishing the week ahead 0.6%. The FTSE 100 ended the week up 1.7%, while Germany's DAX index fell 1.1%.
In Asia, most major benchmarks closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.3%. Japan's Nikkei 225 ticked up 0.4%.
Write to Anna Hirtenstein at anna.hirtenstein@wsj.com and Gunjan Banerji at gunjan.banerji@wsj.com
美聯儲政策和烏克蘭戰爭的不確定性將標準普爾500指數推向每週的跌幅,並引發了政府債券市場的拋售。
上週五,上證綜指下跌11.93點,至4488.28點,跌幅0.3%。以科技為主的$納斯達克綜合指數(.IXIC.US)$該指數下跌186.30點,至13711.00點,跌幅1.3%。藍籌股$道瓊斯工業平均指數(.DJI.US)$扳回早盤跌幅,收盤上漲137.55點,至34721.12點,漲幅0.4%。
三大股指本週均以下跌收盤。標準普爾500指數結束了連續三週的上漲勢頭,下跌1.3%,創下2020年11月以來的最佳表現。道瓊斯指數和納斯達克指數分別下跌0.3%和3.9%。
同時,隨着債券價格暴跌,指標10年期美國國債收益率躍升至2019年3月以來的最高水平。
在整個一週,投資者仍然全神貫注於美聯儲官員的評論以及美聯儲3月份政策會議的紀要,這些紀要顯示,政策制定者考慮過更快地加息和清理資產負債表,推動股市走低。
聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行行長布拉德週四説,美聯儲沒有完成抑制通脹的使命,很可能不得不採取相當有力的行動來控制物價壓力。
整個市場的資產波動突顯出,對於許多投資者來説,經濟的道路仍然是多麼模糊,他們正試圖挑選利率上升機制的贏家和輸家,並努力應對全球大宗商品價格的飆升。
阿布頓的投資經理詹姆斯·阿西(James Athee)表示:“美聯儲一直是頭號人物,而且還在繼續。”“已經討論過的那種緊縮政策的影響,歷來都是非常不穩定的。”
債券收益率的快速飆升讓一些投資者和分析人士想知道,收益率的上升是否會削弱股票的回報,以及投資者會在什麼時候選擇拋售股票,轉而選擇債券。一些投資者越來越擔心,在美國走出上一輪經濟低迷僅兩年後,央行的加息將導致經濟衰退。
基準10年期美國國債收益率連續第六個交易日上漲,至2.713%。較短期債券收益率也走高,兩年期國債收益率升至2.518%,連續第五週上漲。兩年期美債收益率錄得1987年5月以來最大五週漲幅。
雖然收益率水平仍然相當低,但如果它們上升得足夠快,股市能經受住這樣的貨幣衝擊嗎?
-Leuthold Group首席投資策略師吉姆·保爾森週四在給客户的一份報告中寫道。
鮑爾森説,在過去三個月裏,收益率的上升速度超過了1950年以來所有三個月期間的近97%。不過,他説,當10年期美國國債收益率一直低於3%,直到收益率升至4%左右時,股市通常表現良好。
最近反彈的一些科技股在最近幾個交易日有所回落。$亞馬遜(AMZN.US)$股價本週下跌5.6%,而谷歌母公司$Alphabet-A(谷歌)$下跌4.9%。以科技股為主的納斯達克的表現嚴重遜於同行,延續了今年早些時候的趨勢。
投資者還不得不分析來自市場不同部分的混合信號。例如,債券市場最近發出了衰退可能即將到來的信號。通常被視為經濟健康狀況指標的交通類股也在暴跌。
道瓊斯運輸平均指數跟蹤20家美國大型公司,其中包括快遞巨頭$聯合包裹服務(UPS.US)$給鐵路運營商$聯合太平洋(UNP.US)$本月初下跌了11%,而道瓊斯工業平均指數整體下跌了約0.1%。當消費者在旅行和其他商品上增加支出,經濟前景更加光明時,運營火車和飛機等業務的公司往往會看到更高的需求。
烏克蘭戰爭也繼續令市場承壓。本週,俄羅斯軍隊對平民犯下戰爭罪的指控引發了美國和歐盟的新一輪制裁。週四,聯合國大會投票決定暫停俄羅斯的人權理事會成員資格。
儘管最近出現了波動,債券市場也發出了信號,但主要股指已從3月份的低點迅速回升。標準普爾500指數自3月份的低點以來上漲了7.6%,漲幅廣泛。一些投資者表示,儘管美國國債收益率大幅上升,但股市仍然具有吸引力。
“如果你想在未來10年增強購買力,我想不出比股票更好的地方了,”Valley Forge Capital創始人Dev Kantesaria説。“我們一直在買入更多我們投資組合中的公司。我們的現金接近0%。”
在大宗商品方面,鈀和鉑的價格大幅上漲,此前倫敦金屬市場監管機構表示,將禁止俄羅斯政府擁有的兩家大型煉油公司生產金屬。與此同時,聯合國週五表示,全球食品價格在3月份創下歷史新高。
油價小幅走低,全球基準布倫特原油價格連續第二週下跌,在下跌1.5%後跌至每桶102.78美元。交易員們正在評估能源公司的制裁和自我制裁措施對俄羅斯石油出口的影響,以及國際能源署成員國釋放戰略儲備的影響。
在海外,泛歐斯托克歐洲600指數週五收盤上漲1.3%,本週上漲0.6%。富時100指數本週上漲1.7%,而德國DAX指數下跌1.1%。
在亞洲,大多數主要基準指數收盤上漲。上證綜合指數上漲0.5%,香港恆生指數上漲0.3%。日本日經225指數上漲0.4%。
致信anna.hirstein@wsj.com安娜·希爾滕斯坦和Gunjan Banerji@wsj.com