2024年第三季度
业绩会
视频更新
Max K. Brodén
大约为23个月，除非之前被召回。
有关更多信息请联系：
投资者与评级机构关系
800.235.2667
aflacir@aflac.com
全球阿福公司总部
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哥伦布，乔治亚州31999
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初步说明：前瞻性信息和非美国通用会计准则财务指标
前瞻性信息
1995年《私人证券诉讼改革法》为鼓励公司提供前瞻性信息提供了"安全港"，只要这些信息性陈述被确定为前瞻性，并附有表明可能导致实际结果与前瞻性陈述中包括的结果有重大差异的有意义警告性陈述。公司希望利用这些规定。本文包含表明可能导致实际结果与此处投影以及公司官员与金融社区进行的通信以及提交给证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件中包含的其他任何陈述有重大差异的警告性陈述。前瞻性陈述不基于历史信息，与未来业务、策略、财务结果或其他发展相关。此外，前瞻性信息受到众多假设、风险和不确定性的影响。特别是，包含"期望"、"预期"、"相信"、"目标"、"目的"、"可能"、"应该"、"估计"、"打算"、"项目"、"将"、"假设"、"潜在"、"目标"、"展望"或类似单词以及未来结果的具体投影的陈述，一般可视为前瞻性。阿福拉克不承诺更新此类前瞻性陈述。
公司警告读者，除了不时提到的其他因素外，以下因素也可能导致实际结果与前瞻性声明所描绘的情况大相径庭：
•全球资本市场和经济面临着困难条件，包括通货膨胀
•投资的违约和信用降级
•全球利率期货波动和面临重大利率风险暴露
•业务集中在日本
•可接受日元投资品种有限
•日元/美元汇率的外币波动
•投资估值应用了不同的解读
•在确定公司投资上记录的预期信贷损失时，存在重大的估值判断。
•公司财务实力或债务评级下降
•其他金融机构信用等级下降
•公司吸引和留住合格的销售人员、经纪人、雇员和分销合作伙伴的能力
•实际经验与定价和储备假设之间的偏差
•继续发展和实施信息技术系统改进，并成功执行营业收入增长和费用管理计划
•电信、信息技术和其他运营系统中的中断，或未能保持这些系统上存储的敏感数据的安防-半导体、保密性、完整性或隐私
•子公司支付分红派息给母公司的能力
•风险管理政策和程序的固有限制
•第三方厂商的运营风险
•公司适用的税率可能会发生变化
•未能遵守关于保单持有人隐私和信息安防的限制
•政府机构的大规模监管和法律或法规的变化
•竞争环境和对市场趋势的预测能力以及对其做出反应的能力
•灾难性事件，包括但不限于由气候变化、流行病、大流行病、龙卷风、飓风、地震、海啸、战争或军工-半导体行动、重大公共卫生问题、恐怖主义或其他暴力行为导致的损害以及由此类事件而造成的损害
•保护Aflac品牌和公司声誉的能力
•能够有效管理重要高管接班
•会计准则的变化
•诉讼或监管调查的程度和结果
•美国工人身份误分类的指控或裁定
非美国通用会计准则财务指标及调整
本文件包含对公司的财务绩效指标的引用，这些指标并非按照美国通用会计准则（U.S. GAAP）计算（非U.S. GAAP）。财务
措施不包括公司认为可能掩盖保险业务的基本面和趋势的项目，因为它们往往受一般经济条件和事件驱动，或与不经常活动有关，而与保险业务没有直接关联。
公司非美国通用会计准则财务指标的定义以及与最相似的美国通用会计准则指标的调和信息包含在随附此文本的演示文稿中。
受到Aflac日本规模之影响，其功能货币为日币，日元/美元汇率波动可能对报告结果产生重大影响。在日元疲软期间，将日元兑换成美元导致报告的美元减少。而当日元升值时，将日元兑换成美元导致报告的美元增加。因此，日元贬值会抑制当前期结果相对于可比先前期的效果，而日元升值则会放大当前期结果相对于可比先前期的效果。公司业务的相当一部分以日元进行，从未转换为美元，但出于美国通用会计准则报告目的，将其翻译成美元，从而使其对盈利、现金流和帐面价值产生外币影响。管理层评估公司的财务绩效，包括和排除外币翻译影响，以随时监控累积货币影响和货币中立运营绩效。平均日元/美元汇率基于三菱日联银行有限公司公布的电传汇款中间价（TTM）。
Max K. Brodén
2024年第三季度CFO视频更新
大约为23个月，除非之前被召回。
感谢您加入我的财务更新，为您提供2024年第三季度Aflac Incorporated的业绩报告。
就本季度而言，每股调整后稀释收益同比增长17.4％至2.16美元，该季度外汇期货的负面影响为0.03美元。在这一季度，准备金的再测量收益总计40800万美元，减少了利益，而日本推迟确认的赔款责任减少了7500万美元。变量投资收入低于我们的长期回报预期2700万美元。
包括外汇翻译收益和损失在内，调整后的每股账面价值增长了7.3％，调整后的roe为16.7％，相对于我们的资本成本是一个可接受的差值。总的来说，我们认为本季度的结果令人满意。
Starting with our Japan segment, net earned premiums for the quarter declined 10.5%. This decline reflects a ¥7.3 billion negative impact from an internal cancer reinsurance transaction1 executed in fourth quarter 2023 and ¥4.6 billion negative impact from paid up policies. In addition, there is a ¥13.3 billion negative impact from deferred profit liability, the majority of which is a one-time impact from unlocking of LDTI assumptions. At the same time, policies in force declined 2.3%.
Japan’s total benefit ratio came in at 49.2% for the quarter, down 15.9 percentage points year over year and the third sector benefit ratio was 41.8%, down approximately 13 percentage points year over year. We estimate the impact from remeasurement gains to be approximately 18 percentage points favorable to the benefit ratio in Q3 2024. Long-term experience trends, as it relates to treatments of cancer and hospitalization, continue to be in place, leading to continued favorable underwriting experience. Given the impact from unlocking, we now expect the full year benefit ratio to end up in the range of 62% to 63%.
Persistency remained solid with a rate of 93.3%, which was down 20 basis points year over year. This change in persistency is in line with our expectations.
Our expense ratio in Japan was 20.0%, up 100 basis points year over year, driven primarily by decline in revenues.
Adjusted net investment income in yen terms was up 0.1%, as the benefits from lower hedge costs and favorable impact from foreign currency on USD investments in yen terms were largely offset by lower floating rate income and lower volume as we have continued to shift assets from Aflac Japan to Aflac Re Bermuda.
The pretax margin for Japan in the quarter was 44.7%, up 11.9 percentage points year over year; a very good result. For the full year, we now expect the pretax margin to be in the range of 35% to 36%.
Turning to U.S. results, net earned premium was up 2.8%. Persistency increased 20 basis points year over year to 78.9%. Considering our year to date results, we now expect full year net earned premiums to be towards the lower end of our guidance range of 3% to 5%.
Our total benefit ratio came in at 47.6%, 11.7 percentage points higher than Q3 2023, driven by lower remeasurement gains than a year ago. We estimate that remeasurement gains impacted the benefit ratio by approximately 120 basis points in the quarter. Claims utilization has rebounded from depressed levels during the pandemic and are now more in line with our long term expectations. For the full year we would expect the benefit ratio to be towards the higher end of our guidance range of 45% to 47%.
1 Excludes the impact from reinsurance novated to Aflac Re Bermuda in December 2023 whereby Aflac Re Bermuda assumed the duties, obligations and liabilities through a reinsurance of business ALIJ previously ceded to an external reinsurer.
Our expense ratio in the U.S. was 38.0%, down 260 basis points year over year, primarily driven by platforms improving scale and strong expense management. Given business seasonality, we would expect an uptick in the expense ratio for Q4, but to remain within our guidance range of 38% to 40% for the full year.
Our growth initiatives – group life & disability, network dental and vision and direct to consumer – increased our total expense ratio by 100 basis points. This is in line with our expectations, and we would expect this impact to decrease going forward as these businesses grow to scale and improve their profitability.
Adjusted net investment income in the U.S. was up 0.5%, mainly driven by higher fixed rate income.
Profitability in the U.S. segment was solid, with a pretax margin of 20.8%, also a good result.
Our total commercial real estate loan watchlist remains approximately $1.0 billion, with less than $250 million in process of foreclosure currently. As a result of these current low valuation marks, we increased our CECL reserves associated with these loans by $3 million in this quarter net of charge offs. We had one loan foreclosure moved into real estate owned. We continue to believe that the current distressed market does not reflect the true intrinsic value of our portfolio, which is why we are confident in our ability to take ownership of these assets, manage them through this cycle and maximize our recoveries.
Our portfolio of first lien senior secured middle market loans continued to perform well, with losses below our expectations for this point in the cycle.
In our corporate segment, we recorded a pretax gain of $15 million. Adjusted net investment income was $37 million higher than last year due to a combination of higher rates and asset balances, which included the impact of reinsurance transactions in Q4 2023, as well as continued lower volume of tax credit investments. These tax credit investments impacted the corporate net investment income line for U.S. GAAP purposes negatively by $57 million in the quarter with an associated credit to the tax line. The net impact to our bottom line was a positive $5 million in the quarter. To date, these investments are performing well and in line with our expectations.
We are continuing to build out our internal reinsurance platform, and I am pleased with the outcome and performance. In the fourth quarter, we intend to execute another tranche with similar structure and economics in yen terms to our October 2023 transaction.
Our capital position remains strong, and we ended the quarter with an SMR above 1,100%, and our combined RBC, while not finalized, we estimate to be greater than 650%. These are strong capital ratios, which we actively monitor, stress and manage to withstand credit cycles as well as external shocks. U.S. statutory impairments were $58 million, and there were no additional Japan FSA impairments in Q3. This is well within our expectations and with limited impact to both earnings and capital.
As we hold approximately 60% of our debt in yen, our leverage increased to 21.0%, as a result of the move in the yen/dollar exchange rate – well within our target range of 20% to 25%. Our leverage will fluctuate with movements in the yen/dollar rate. This is intentional and part of our enterprise hedging program – protecting the economic value of Aflac Japan in U.S. dollar terms.
Unencumbered holding company liquidity stood at $3.9 billion, $2.1 billion above our minimum balance.
We repurchased $500 million of our own stock and paid dividends of $280 million in Q3, offering good relative IRR on these capital deployments. We will continue to be flexible and tactical in how we manage the balance sheet and deploy capital in order to drive strong risk-adjusted ROE with a meaningful spread to our cost of capital.
Thank you, and I look forward to discussing our results in further detail on tomorrow's earnings call.