附件99.3
补充收益材料：Q&A – 2024年第三季度
问题：您是否预计2025年的结果将因更高的预期协同效应而增值？
A: 我们对开多期及长期未来的Air Group都持乐观态度。我们正从稳固的财务基础上着手与夏威夷网络整合，有明确的协同效应实现路径。我们计划在12月10日的投资者日上分享更多关于我们的业务策略和修订后的协同效应估计，包括预期的协同效应实现以及2025年的每股收益指引。th.
问：2024年第三季度阿拉斯加和夏威夷的单位营业收入表现如何？您能谈谈竞争能力趋势如何影响您网络和业绩的哪些方面以及您对第三季度和第四季度的展望吗？
据报道，我们合并的第三季度单位收入同比增长1.3%，阿拉斯加和夏威夷网络单位收入在八月转为正增长。传统航空集团单位收入增长约2%，与先前的指导相符。按照合并载体的假设，假设阿拉斯加和夏威夷在2023年和2024年的整个第三季度都是合并的承运人，单位收入同比将增长1.4%。
展望未来，按照目前的公开指引，预计第四季度的调整后单位收入将以中个位数增长，这将是同行业板块在季度间顺期改善基础上表现最佳的之一。
传统航空集团单位营业收入预计将从第三季度的大约2%提高到第四季度的中至高个位数。高端收入表现继续优于普通舱，第三季度头等舱和豪华舱收入分别同比增长10%和8%，而仅有豪华座位容量增加了5%。
积极的预订趋势延续至十月，假期的预订虽然强劲，但考虑到感恩节归来旅行的推迟，十二月的表现会更好。 一月和二月的预订情况良好，承载率也比去年同期有所提高。
夏威夷网络营业收入趋势同样令人鼓舞，随着北美PRASm在本季度转为正数，向第四季度同比上升到中等个位数，而国际PRASm逐渐改善，从同比双位数跌幅向平稳方向发展。邻近岛屿的业绩也显示同比改善。
问：您是否看到由于其他公司撤出而产生的国内航线机会？
A：我们对网络发展有明确的战略重点，首先将致力于优化连接阿拉斯加和夏威夷系统。 我们相信我们的结合进一步支持加利福尼亚的Air Group增长，因为我们对加利福尼亚旅行者的重要性增强（夏威夷航空是前往夏威夷的旅客首选航空公司），本月我们宣布了五条新的直达航线，其中四条涉及加利福尼亚（从拉斯维加斯到圣地亚哥和圣罗莎，从洛杉矶到帕斯科和里诺，从波特兰到亚特兰大）。
为了支持我们的网络整合和协同努力，我们已经通过时间段显着重新校准了西雅图和波特兰的枢纽航班，以扩大和优化与传统空中集团网络以及与夏威夷合并网络的连接机会。我们将在投资者日进一步讨论我们未来的网络。
Q: 2024年第三季度和第四季度的企业需求表现如何？
A: 随着今年初出现企业旅行需求的变化，9月份以及10月份的企业需求持续看涨，进一步提高了即将到来的紧急预订强度。在阿拉斯加网络中，受管理企业营业收入在第三季度同比增长9%，科技和专业服务行业增长两位数，我们预计第四季度会有类似的趋势。夏威夷的企业组合规模较小。
附件99.3
比阿拉斯加的岛屿密度更高，主要分布在邻近岛屿之间以及夏威夷和北美洲之间。
问题: 请您更新一下自上季以来的豪华座椅改装进展情况?
A：到目前为止，我们已经完成了五架737-900ER的翻新工程，并预计到年底将完成18架飞机的翻新工程，在明年夏季之前完成全部79架飞机的翻新工程。2025年初，我们将开始对我们的137架737-800、Max 8和Max 9飞机进行翻新工程，目标是在2026年夏季之前完成所有翻新。
问：随着许多廉价航空公司的竞争对手改变其产品，以更好地吸引高端旅行者，相对于其他公司即将推出的产品，您的优势是什么？您的机上体验与行业板块有何区别，您又如何营销这些差异化特点？
A：我们拥有强大的价值主张，产品和客户服务已经满足了不同旅行者群体，包括寻求更优质体验的人。无论是我们的世界级休息室、宽敞的高端座位间距、优质的机上食品和饮料，还是我们通过oneworld与我们领先行业的忠诚计划连接全球的能力，这些元素的结合为我们的客人创造了价值。重要的是，在我们的核心地理区域，我们拥有最大的相关性和忠诚度，并持续在我们网络的其他地方取得进展。我们计划在12月10日的投资者日分享更多关于为什么这是我们业务的一个重要领域的内容，为什么它将继续助力我们实现超越表现，并计划在这方面进行更多投资。th.
问：贵公司2024年第三季度的利润分成支出大幅增加，能否解释增长的原因，我们是否可以预期在2024年第四季度有类似水平？
作为提醒，自2023年起，除了我们的基础利润分享计划，我们还实施了一个利润调整组件，激励我们的团队专注于实现行业板块中排名第一、第二或第三的调整前税前利润率。随着年度业绩在不断改善，今年第二季度和第三季度的利润率位居同行业领先地位，燃油价格下降和营业收入增强，我们的利润预测增加，导致本季度增加了更多的预备款。与先前预期相比，这种预备款在本季度为CASMex英镑贬值追加了约1.5个百分点。我们预计本年度第四季度的预备费用水平将与当前预期和了解到的行业指导相符，同样会对第四季度单位成本造成压力。
我们在行业板块中长期以来一直实现排名前三的利润率，并认为继续专注于保持这些利润率对公司的长期健康至关重要，同时相信当我们实现这一目标时回馈给我们所有员工将是一个促使持续财务表现的强大动力。
问题：您能解释Q3 2024年CASMex绩效的利弊以及您对2024年Q4的高一位数预期的驱动因素吗？
A: 在2024年第三季度，我们与空乘人员的临时协议未经过批准，目前也没有任何有效的临时协议，因此我们第三季度的业绩和第四季度的预测都不包括与新协议相关的费用。我们计划下个月与调解员重新开始谈判，并期待达成协议。一旦我们达成临时协议，我们将重新开始计提这些费用，并纳入未来的预测指引中。正如上文所述，我们对盈利能力的期望提高也推动了本季度利润分成费用的增加，并将持续至年底。我们的核心成本绩效保持强劲，有助于部分抵消增加的利润分成。
截至2024年底，受到低于我们计划和建立公司的增长水平的显著影响，我们仍为更高产能交付而投入资源。 相对过多的员工和历史低流失率，以及低产能对我们固定成本基础造成的自然压力，导致我们在年底的大约三分之一的单位成本压力。 我们预计这种压力是暂时的，并会在2025年全年再次回归更优化的资源水平，相对于我们的产能。尽管如此，生产力仍然在第三季度年年有所提高。
展览品99.3
由于整个行业板块的增长受到限制，进入肩季时大多数工作组的人员流失率较低。此外，因生产问题和机械工罢工造成的波音交货量减少，这导致我们承担的成本超过了预期的飞行水平，特别是在第四季度。短期内，我们正在通过调整人员配置假期来减轻过剩成本，并仍然预期在第四季度有适度的同比生产力改善。我们将这些成本视为暂时的，随著我们开始接受新的交货，预计将以非常少的额外资源实现新的飞行水平。
Q: Ex merger, what are the key unit cost headwinds and tailwinds to keep in mind heading into 2025?
A: Throughout 2024 we have experienced several headwinds impacting costs, including most significantly, the MAX grounding and ongoing Boeing strike that have reduced our growth relative to our planning expectations. Although productivity continued to improve, up ~5% y/y in Q3 2024, our full year productivity is only half of what we expected to achieve this year. Although aircraft delivery delays are expected to persist into 2025, we have adjusted our planning and hiring, and expect much of our work group inefficiencies to be tailwinds into 2025. Other cost items such as higher real estate costs will continue to be headwinds, and as we restart negotiations with our flight attendants next month, we expect y/y pressure from a new labor contract once achieved.
Q: How much is capacity growth impacted in Q4 2024 for legacy Air Group, and given continued delays/uncertainty around MAX-10 certification timing, would you consider executing and expanding on Hawaiian’s A321 purchase rights?
A: Following the MAX grounding earlier this year, we lowered our delivery and growth expectations for 2024. However, subsequent delivery delays, compounded by the ongoing strike at Boeing have further reduced our current and future forecasted capacity. As a result, legacy Air Group network growth expectations have been reduced by approximately 2pts in the fourth quarter. We now expect legacy Air Group capacity growth to be less than 2% for the year versus our previous expectation of less than 2.5% growth y/y.
On a combined basis, we expect capacity growth to be approximately 1.5% to 2.5% for the fourth quarter, with the legacy Air Group network roughly flat y/y and the Hawaiian network growing approximately 7-8% y/y.
It remains too early to predict our future fleet strategy now that we operate a mixed fleet again. We are familiar with the A321 and its capabilities and our future fleet design will be influenced by Boeing’s ability to restart MAX production and certify the MAX10 aircraft on schedule.
Q: Now that you’re able to see financial projections of Hawaiian’s network following the closing of the acquisition, how are you feeling about its recovery trajectory?
A: We are excited about both the opportunity to combine our two networks to unlock synergies, as well as about the standalone improvement already happening across the Hawaiian network.
Neighbor Island and North American advanced bookings are strong and International is improving, albeit more slowly. Additionally, significant one-time cost headwinds are rapidly abating.
Hawaiian’s revenue was uniquely impacted by the Maui wildfires and has been challenged by a slower return of Japan point of origin travel. On costs, Hawaiian was exposed to the industry-wide GTF Engine related groundings in addition to aircraft delivery delays and fleet startup costs for both the 787 and A330 freighter fleets. All of these provided significant headwinds to Hawaiian’s 2024 results.
Hawaiian’s results are significantly improved, with EBITDAR that’s been positive since Q2 2024 and Q4 2024 adjusted pretax results approaching break even. While the Hawaiian network is seasonal and will likely see normal first quarter challenges, we anticipate results will be markedly improved in 2025 versus 2024, well before beginning the process of materially synergizing the two companies.
Q: Is 28% your new normalized tax rate?
Exhibit 99.3
A: We anticipate, based on current tax law and internal projections, that our tax rate will normalize back to ~25% in 2025. Our 2024 tax rate reflects on-time acquisition-related impacts related to the transaction.
Q: Are you still planning to repurchase shares to offset dilution this year?
A: After a required pause on share repurchases leading up to the closing of the acquisition, we anticipate resuming share repurchases in the near future.
Q: What are your updated capex expectations this year and next?
A: Our current expectation is to pay for 18 MAX aircraft this year and no further 787 deliveries. Our capex estimate for 2024 remains $1.2-1.3 billion, however, is subject to change given ongoing delivery delays and active dialogue with Boeing to reset our future fleet plan.
Q: Have your plans on fuel hedging evolved with the acquisition at all and how should we think about future fuel inputs?
A: At the end of 2023 we discontinued our hedging program. Our program consisted of very simple hedges on crude oil. However, as these hedges have become more expensive, and refining margins have grown in significance in terms of our overall fuel costs and volatility, we decided to end this program. Our teams are focused on investing in better fuel sourcing with the aim of reducing volatility and lowering our fuel costs. Hawaiian has had a different hedging program in place, which we are currently evaluating, and we will share more on that once a decision is made.
Q: Where are you in the labor process and what is your expected timing for the joint bargaining process and possible economics?
A: We are focused on achieving a ratified deal with our Flight Attendants as quickly as possible and resume mediation in November. We expect joint collective bargaining negotiations to commence with all our unions during 2025.
Q: When will Air Group provide pro-forma results (i.e., Legacy Air Group and Hawaiian combined co.) for prior-year quarters and how far back will financials be restated?
A: Today we provided Article 11 compliant pro-forma results for Q3 2023 and Q4 2023 for comparison purposes. FY 2024 results will only include Hawaiian’s financial results from September 18 through year end.
Q: What are your targeted balance sheet plans over the next 2 years
A: We are excited to share more details on our deleveraging path at our Investor Day. However, we are starting from a strong position even after the close of the acquisition. Following the successful funding of $2.0 billion in loyalty financing in October, our debt to capitalization level rose to 58%, up from 46% in Q2 2024 and our net leverage is now 2.4x vs. 1.0x. These metrics are better than the relative position we previously announced back in December 2023 where we expected debt to capitalization and net leverage to be <60% and <3x, respectively. At these levels, even before we begin to deleverage again, we still have one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry.
Subsequent to quarter close, we refinanced approximately $1.4B of higher-rate debt assumed in the merger, including $985M of HawaiianMiles 11.0% Senior Secured Notes and approximately $436M of other secured debt. These refinancings are expected to drive annualized interest cost savings of approximately $30M for the combined company in the first 12 months.
Q: What are your plans for the future network? What might a higher synergy target look like? How do you plan to execute two brands within one airline? When do you expect the deal to be accretive? Do you have new plans for the future loyalty and credit card program? What do you plan to do with your widebody aircraft? Any early thoughts on 2025 RASM or CASM trends?
Exhibit 99.3
A: We look forward to sharing answers to questions like this at our upcoming investor day December 10th in New York City.