附件99.3
補充收益材料：Q&A – 2024年第三季度
問題：您是否預計2025年的結果將因更高的預期協同效應而增值？
A: 我們對開多期及長期未來的Air Group都持樂觀態度。我們正從穩固的財務基礎上着手與夏威夷網絡整合，有明確的協同效應實現路徑。我們計劃在12月10日的投資者日上分享更多關於我們的業務策略和修訂後的協同效應估計，包括預期的協同效應實現以及2025年的每股收益指引。th.
問：2024年第三季度阿拉斯加和夏威夷的單位營業收入表現如何？您能談談競爭能力趨勢如何影響您網絡和業績的哪些方面以及您對第三季度和第四季度的展望嗎？
據報道，我們合併的第三季度單位收入同比增長1.3%，阿拉斯加和夏威夷網絡單位收入在八月轉爲正增長。傳統航空集團單位收入增長約2%，與先前的指導相符。按照合併載體的假設，假設阿拉斯加和夏威夷在2023年和2024年的整個第三季度都是合併的承運人，單位收入同比將增長1.4%。
展望未來，按照目前的公開指引，預計第四季度的調整後單位收入將以中個位數增長，這將是同行業板塊在季度間順期改善基礎上表現最佳的之一。
傳統航空集團單位營業收入預計將從第三季度的大約2%提高到第四季度的中至高個位數。高端收入表現繼續優於普通艙，第三季度頭等艙和豪華艙收入分別同比增長10%和8%，而僅有豪華座位容量增加了5%。
積極的預訂趨勢延續至十月，假期的預訂雖然強勁，但考慮到感恩節歸來旅行的推遲，十二月的表現會更好。 一月和二月的預訂情況良好，承載率也比去年同期有所提高。
夏威夷網絡營業收入趨勢同樣令人鼓舞，隨着北美PRASm在本季度轉爲正數，向第四季度同比上升到中等個位數，而國際PRASm逐漸改善，從同比雙位數跌幅向平穩方向發展。鄰近島嶼的業績也顯示同比改善。
問：您是否看到由於其他公司撤出而產生的國內航線機會？
A：我們對網絡發展有明確的戰略重點，首先將致力於優化連接阿拉斯加和夏威夷系統。 我們相信我們的結合進一步支持加利福尼亞的Air Group增長，因爲我們對加利福尼亞旅行者的重要性增強（夏威夷航空是前往夏威夷的旅客首選航空公司），本月我們宣佈了五條新的直達航線，其中四條涉及加利福尼亞（從拉斯維加斯到聖地亞哥和聖羅莎，從洛杉磯到帕斯科和裏諾，從波特蘭到亞特蘭大）。
爲了支持我們的網絡整合和協同努力，我們已經通過時間段顯着重新校準了西雅圖和波特蘭的樞紐航班，以擴大和優化與傳統空中集團網絡以及與夏威夷合併網絡的連接機會。我們將在投資者日進一步討論我們未來的網絡。
Q: 2024年第三季度和第四季度的企業需求表現如何？
A: 隨着今年初出現企業旅行需求的變化，9月份以及10月份的企業需求持續看漲，進一步提高了即將到來的緊急預訂強度。在阿拉斯加網絡中，受管理企業營業收入在第三季度同比增長9%，科技和專業服務行業增長兩位數，我們預計第四季度會有類似的趨勢。夏威夷的企業組合規模較小。
附件99.3
比阿拉斯加的島嶼密度更高，主要分佈在鄰近島嶼之間以及夏威夷和北美洲之間。
問題: 請您更新一下自上季以來的豪華座椅改裝進展情況?
A：到目前爲止，我們已經完成了五架737-900ER的翻新工程，並預計到年底將完成18架飛機的翻新工程，在明年夏季之前完成全部79架飛機的翻新工程。2025年初，我們將開始對我們的137架737-800、Max 8和Max 9飛機進行翻新工程，目標是在2026年夏季之前完成所有翻新。
問：隨着許多廉價航空公司的競爭對手改變其產品，以更好地吸引高端旅行者，相對於其他公司即將推出的產品，您的優勢是什麼？您的機上體驗與行業板塊有何區別，您又如何營銷這些差異化特點？
A：我們擁有強大的價值主張，產品和客戶服務已經滿足了不同旅行者群體，包括尋求更優質體驗的人。無論是我們的世界級休息室、寬敞的高端座位間距、優質的機上食品和飲料，還是我們通過oneworld與我們領先行業的忠誠計劃連接全球的能力，這些元素的結合爲我們的客人創造了價值。重要的是，在我們的核心地理區域，我們擁有最大的相關性和忠誠度，並持續在我們網絡的其他地方取得進展。我們計劃在12月10日的投資者日分享更多關於爲什麼這是我們業務的一個重要領域的內容，爲什麼它將繼續助力我們實現超越表現，並計劃在這方面進行更多投資。th.
問：貴公司2024年第三季度的利潤分成支出大幅增加，能否解釋增長的原因，我們是否可以預期在2024年第四季度有類似水平？
作爲提醒，自2023年起，除了我們的基礎利潤分享計劃，我們還實施了一個利潤調整組件，激勵我們的團隊專注於實現行業板塊中排名第一、第二或第三的調整前稅前利潤率。隨着年度業績在不斷改善，今年第二季度和第三季度的利潤率位居同行業領先地位，燃油價格下降和營業收入增強，我們的利潤預測增加，導致本季度增加了更多的預備款。與先前預期相比，這種預備款在本季度爲CASMex英鎊貶值追加了約1.5個百分點。我們預計本年度第四季度的預備費用水平將與當前預期和了解到的行業指導相符，同樣會對第四季度單位成本造成壓力。
我們在行業板塊中長期以來一直實現排名前三的利潤率，並認爲繼續專注於保持這些利潤率對公司的長期健康至關重要，同時相信當我們實現這一目標時回饋給我們所有員工將是一個促使持續財務表現的強大動力。
問題：您能解釋Q3 2024年CASMex績效的利弊以及您對2024年Q4的高一位數預期的驅動因素嗎？
A: 在2024年第三季度，我們與空乘人員的臨時協議未經過批准，目前也沒有任何有效的臨時協議，因此我們第三季度的業績和第四季度的預測都不包括與新協議相關的費用。我們計劃下個月與調解員重新開始談判，並期待達成協議。一旦我們達成臨時協議，我們將重新開始計提這些費用，並納入未來的預測指引中。正如上文所述，我們對盈利能力的期望提高也推動了本季度利潤分成費用的增加，並將持續至年底。我們的核心成本績效保持強勁，有助於部分抵消增加的利潤分成。
截至2024年底，受到低於我們計劃和建立公司的增長水平的顯著影響，我們仍為更高產能交付而投入資源。 相對過多的員工和歷史低流失率，以及低產能對我們固定成本基礎造成的自然壓力，導致我們在年底的大約三分之一的單位成本壓力。 我們預計這種壓力是暫時的，並會在2025年全年再次回歸更優化的資源水平，相對於我們的產能。儘管如此，生產力仍然在第三季度年年有所提高。
展覽品99.3
由於整個行業板塊的增長受到限制，進入肩季時大多數工作組的人員流失率較低。此外，因生產問題和機械工罷工造成的波音交貨量減少，這導致我們承擔的成本超過了預期的飛行水平，特別是在第四季度。短期內，我們正在通過調整人員配置假期來減輕過剩成本，並仍然預期在第四季度有適度的同比生產力改善。我們將這些成本視為暫時的，隨著我們開始接受新的交貨，預計將以非常少的額外資源實現新的飛行水平。
Q: Ex merger, what are the key unit cost headwinds and tailwinds to keep in mind heading into 2025?
A: Throughout 2024 we have experienced several headwinds impacting costs, including most significantly, the MAX grounding and ongoing Boeing strike that have reduced our growth relative to our planning expectations. Although productivity continued to improve, up ~5% y/y in Q3 2024, our full year productivity is only half of what we expected to achieve this year. Although aircraft delivery delays are expected to persist into 2025, we have adjusted our planning and hiring, and expect much of our work group inefficiencies to be tailwinds into 2025. Other cost items such as higher real estate costs will continue to be headwinds, and as we restart negotiations with our flight attendants next month, we expect y/y pressure from a new labor contract once achieved.
Q: How much is capacity growth impacted in Q4 2024 for legacy Air Group, and given continued delays/uncertainty around MAX-10 certification timing, would you consider executing and expanding on Hawaiian’s A321 purchase rights?
A: Following the MAX grounding earlier this year, we lowered our delivery and growth expectations for 2024. However, subsequent delivery delays, compounded by the ongoing strike at Boeing have further reduced our current and future forecasted capacity. As a result, legacy Air Group network growth expectations have been reduced by approximately 2pts in the fourth quarter. We now expect legacy Air Group capacity growth to be less than 2% for the year versus our previous expectation of less than 2.5% growth y/y.
On a combined basis, we expect capacity growth to be approximately 1.5% to 2.5% for the fourth quarter, with the legacy Air Group network roughly flat y/y and the Hawaiian network growing approximately 7-8% y/y.
It remains too early to predict our future fleet strategy now that we operate a mixed fleet again. We are familiar with the A321 and its capabilities and our future fleet design will be influenced by Boeing’s ability to restart MAX production and certify the MAX10 aircraft on schedule.
Q: Now that you’re able to see financial projections of Hawaiian’s network following the closing of the acquisition, how are you feeling about its recovery trajectory?
A: We are excited about both the opportunity to combine our two networks to unlock synergies, as well as about the standalone improvement already happening across the Hawaiian network.
Neighbor Island and North American advanced bookings are strong and International is improving, albeit more slowly. Additionally, significant one-time cost headwinds are rapidly abating.
Hawaiian’s revenue was uniquely impacted by the Maui wildfires and has been challenged by a slower return of Japan point of origin travel. On costs, Hawaiian was exposed to the industry-wide GTF Engine related groundings in addition to aircraft delivery delays and fleet startup costs for both the 787 and A330 freighter fleets. All of these provided significant headwinds to Hawaiian’s 2024 results.
Hawaiian’s results are significantly improved, with EBITDAR that’s been positive since Q2 2024 and Q4 2024 adjusted pretax results approaching break even. While the Hawaiian network is seasonal and will likely see normal first quarter challenges, we anticipate results will be markedly improved in 2025 versus 2024, well before beginning the process of materially synergizing the two companies.
Q: Is 28% your new normalized tax rate?
Exhibit 99.3
A: We anticipate, based on current tax law and internal projections, that our tax rate will normalize back to ~25% in 2025. Our 2024 tax rate reflects on-time acquisition-related impacts related to the transaction.
Q: Are you still planning to repurchase shares to offset dilution this year?
A: After a required pause on share repurchases leading up to the closing of the acquisition, we anticipate resuming share repurchases in the near future.
Q: What are your updated capex expectations this year and next?
A: Our current expectation is to pay for 18 MAX aircraft this year and no further 787 deliveries. Our capex estimate for 2024 remains $1.2-1.3 billion, however, is subject to change given ongoing delivery delays and active dialogue with Boeing to reset our future fleet plan.
Q: Have your plans on fuel hedging evolved with the acquisition at all and how should we think about future fuel inputs?
A: At the end of 2023 we discontinued our hedging program. Our program consisted of very simple hedges on crude oil. However, as these hedges have become more expensive, and refining margins have grown in significance in terms of our overall fuel costs and volatility, we decided to end this program. Our teams are focused on investing in better fuel sourcing with the aim of reducing volatility and lowering our fuel costs. Hawaiian has had a different hedging program in place, which we are currently evaluating, and we will share more on that once a decision is made.
Q: Where are you in the labor process and what is your expected timing for the joint bargaining process and possible economics?
A: We are focused on achieving a ratified deal with our Flight Attendants as quickly as possible and resume mediation in November. We expect joint collective bargaining negotiations to commence with all our unions during 2025.
Q: When will Air Group provide pro-forma results (i.e., Legacy Air Group and Hawaiian combined co.) for prior-year quarters and how far back will financials be restated?
A: Today we provided Article 11 compliant pro-forma results for Q3 2023 and Q4 2023 for comparison purposes. FY 2024 results will only include Hawaiian’s financial results from September 18 through year end.
Q: What are your targeted balance sheet plans over the next 2 years
A: We are excited to share more details on our deleveraging path at our Investor Day. However, we are starting from a strong position even after the close of the acquisition. Following the successful funding of $2.0 billion in loyalty financing in October, our debt to capitalization level rose to 58%, up from 46% in Q2 2024 and our net leverage is now 2.4x vs. 1.0x. These metrics are better than the relative position we previously announced back in December 2023 where we expected debt to capitalization and net leverage to be <60% and <3x, respectively. At these levels, even before we begin to deleverage again, we still have one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry.
Subsequent to quarter close, we refinanced approximately $1.4B of higher-rate debt assumed in the merger, including $985M of HawaiianMiles 11.0% Senior Secured Notes and approximately $436M of other secured debt. These refinancings are expected to drive annualized interest cost savings of approximately $30M for the combined company in the first 12 months.
Q: What are your plans for the future network? What might a higher synergy target look like? How do you plan to execute two brands within one airline? When do you expect the deal to be accretive? Do you have new plans for the future loyalty and credit card program? What do you plan to do with your widebody aircraft? Any early thoughts on 2025 RASM or CASM trends?
Exhibit 99.3
A: We look forward to sharing answers to questions like this at our upcoming investor day December 10th in New York City.