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Evercore’s Emanuel Sees S&P 500 at 6,600 by Mid-2025

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Bloomberg 19:50 · 3814 Views

Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, sees markets in a “digestion phase” following the election of Donald Trump as US president and says, “the bond market is going to call the tune” for at least the next year.

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Transcript

  • 00:00 Let's talk about some price targets.
  • 00:01 BMO 6700, 2020, five year rent, Goldman 65, Morgan Stanley 6500, you think mid 2025, Sixty 600.
  • 00:11 What's behind that?
  • 00:12 So we think there's a lot of parallels in the way the market has digested the election and moving
  • 00:17 beyond to
  • 00:19 not President Trump's
  • 00:21 first year in the first term, but the second year
  • 00:24 of the first term.
  • 00:25 Think about that 2018,
  • 00:27 the year of tax cuts,
  • 00:28 the year of
  • 00:30 tariff and and trade wars and the year of gently rising interest rates until it
  • 00:35 they rose a bit too far at the end of the year.
  • 00:38 That's what really makes sense to us.
  • 00:40 And then, of course, the other part of it is a Fed that
  • 00:45 would like not to be at loggerheads with the president, but the data
  • 00:49 and the policy where inflation and growth may be going
  • 00:53 may cause them to have to sort of ease up on the rate cutting
  • 00:57 as opposed to the counterpoint where they were hiking in 2018 in the days after the election.
  • 01:03 In the media aftermath, you speculated on the prospect of a melt up in equities.
  • 01:07 The rally has since stalled somewhat.
  • 01:10 What's your view on that now?
  • 01:11 I think there's a digestion phase going on, the processing, all the change.
  • 01:16 Look,
  • 01:17 the American people voted for change.
  • 01:19 We are getting change fast and furious.
  • 01:23 And there's clearly
  • 01:25 a bit of,
  • 01:26 I think the, the other aspect of it is, is that going into the vote,
  • 01:30 the very clear preference
  • 01:32 among
  • 01:34 our clients was to see a divided government.
  • 01:36 So but you have the
  • 01:38 unified government.
  • 01:39 The mandate is to move fast
  • 01:42 and that means more volatility.
  • 01:44 And again, there's a lot of uncertainty about how policy is going to be implemented.
  • 01:48 We talked about
  • 01:50 those dynamics
  • 01:51 and there's a recognition that the bond market is going to call the tune for the next year at least.