Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon believes the most likely outcome is a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September meeting, with the odds of a 50-bps cut slightly over 30%. He expects the Fed to cut rates two or three more times before the end of the year. If the labor market weakens further, a 50-bps cut would be justified.
He also observed that CEOs attending consumer forums remain highly optimistic ...

I expect the Federal Reserve will start next week by reducing its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 5% to 5.25%.
Over the next year, we expect the Fed to cut its policy rate to at or near 3.25%, which we think is vicinity of the neutral rate in the post-pandemic economy. That rate would imply a real neutral rate, after adjusting for inflation, of around 1% to 1.5%.
Recent economic data has been solid enough, with service and...