- Disinflationary process started (dovish) - Expect 2023 to be year of significant decline in inflation (dovish) - Encouraging that disinflation has not caused harm to job market (dovish) - Jobs report stronger than he expected (hawkish) - Need further rate hikes (hawkish) - Take couple of years for Fed’s balance sheet decline to come to an end (hawkish) There are more to the above. Go ahead to find the transcript. Anyway, he was hawkish at the start of the speech...
456632345 :
Powell's logic is that employment is strong because the economy is strong, and more interest rates can be raised because the economy is strong. Although a signal to raise interest rates was sent, after all, interest rate hikes have only just slowed down, so the market chose to ignore it for the time being.
Fordx5083Cow Moo-neyOP:
I'm going wait, grab some popcorn & puts for the ride down. It'll be interesting seeing how it falls. Seems like the market is getting very good at sideways channels and then volatile ups and downs and then back to sideways. If you've ever boated in the gulf It's like go back and forth between the bays and the chaotic swells of the ocean! best of luck. Always love your insight & appreciate it.
Milk The CowInvestUncle:
I guess chip makers are among those with 90+ PE (Didn't realised it until u mentioned). Chip makers companies are the most over hyped stock recently, in my opinion...
Back in Dec, most were bearish and calling for SPY to hit 360 or even lower, and Tesla to hit 80 or 60, and Apple to hit 110 or below. But market did a huge reversal. Right now, most are excited about the latest rally, and calling for SPY, Tesla and Apple to fly higher. This is the time I will be cautious as I wait for earnings to be out + next week’s FOMC meeting. When almost everyone is looking in one direction, maybe, just maybe, you could be better of...
LuckyPiggie102276907:
1) next wk fomc ... nothing good will happen. after that market unstable till oct ... see what happen then 2) sept to mid oct ... market worst period. 3) after mid oct ... election coming , maybe will turn up ... there
Cow Moo-neyOPtoomanyscammers:
That’s right. But I think the market forgot that 8.6% is still high, and companies’ earnings will still get hurt. Interest rate needs to maintain at current level minimally or go slightly higher to further tame the inflation
toomanyscammersCow Moo-neyOP:
yes. but if u already knew things are bad and u expected worse but they didn't get so bad like what u Thot. wld u rejoice?
HanabiSG : $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO.US)$ should hit 370.