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Guolian Minsheng Securities: Subsidies may or may be extended to Henry Hub Natural Gas trucks, and the sales of heavy-duty trucks in the domestic market are expected to rise.
According to data from Truck Home, the stock of National IV heavy trucks is expected to be around 0.8 million, and the expansion of the subsidy range is expected to stimulate the release of actual demand, driving the internal demand for heavy trucks upward.
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HAITONG SEC: The scrapping and replacement subsidies for heavy trucks are driving the upward trend in the Industry and are expected to significantly boost the demand for replacements in 2025.
Recently, the Ministry of Transportation, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance released a notice regarding the implementation of the scrapping and updating of old operating trucks. This policy aims to stimulate the scrapping and updating of old trucks through direct financial subsidies, which is expected to significantly boost heavy truck replacement demand in 2025.
[Brokerage Focus] BOCOM INTL points out that this year, the scrapping policy for old operating heavy trucks in the Industry has been intensified, and gas vehicles may possibly be included for the first time in the range of new purchase subsidies.
Jinwu Financial News | BOCOM INTL stated that the Ministry of Transportation, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the 'Notice on the Implementation of the Scrapping and Updating of Old Operational Trucks,' in which the subsidy scope is extended to National IV standards, and gas vehicles may be included in the scope of new purchase subsidies for the first time, exceeding market expectations. The bank indicated that the stock of National III and National IV operational heavy trucks may be between 1 million and 1.5 million vehicles. Under the policy stimulus, an increase of 120,000 to 150,000 heavy trucks is expected this year, with the baseline annual sales of heavy trucks being 800,000 to 900,000 units, so this year's annual sales are expected to reach one million levels. Gas heavy trucks in 2025 will be in January-February.
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Hong Kong stocks Concept tracking | In 2025, the implementation details for the scrapping and updating of old operational trucks were issued, directly benefiting heavy truck companies (with related concept stocks attached).
The subsidy period for the scrapping and updating of old operational trucks and the purchase of new energy cold chain delivery trucks is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025.