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haitong sec: baijiu companies jointly cope with slowing down, beer volume and price are under pressure, waiting quietly for a recovery.
baijiu actively slows down to relieve pressure due to weak demand, exacerbating differentiation and highlighting the Matthew effect; beer Q3 demand is weak, leading to pressure on volume and price in the peak season, with cost benefits continuing to support profitability.
Guosheng Securities: Fiscal policy intensifies as csi sws food & beverage index continues to advance.
On November 8th, the Ministry of Finance announced that an additional 6 trillion yuan of local government debt quota will be used for future three years of debt conversion, marking the most significant debt reduction measures in recent years. At the same time, a more powerful fiscal policy will continue to be implemented next year, demonstrating the government's unwavering determination to strengthen the economy.
zheshang Securities: In Q3 24, liquor companies take the initiative to control speed, while leading liquor companies still have resilience.
In the third quarter of 2024, liquor enterprises took the initiative to control speed, striving to resolve the supply-demand contradictions and inventory pressure in their development, with revenue/profits of kweichow moutai, anhui gujing distillery, shanxi xinghuacun fen wine factory, sichuan swellfun, hebei hengshui laobaigan liquor meeting expectations.
gtja: Continued warming expectation for domestic demand improvement highlights the resilience of baijiu.
In the short term, the baijiu industry is expected to lead the way, with the market focusing on the resilience and space for individual stock performance recovery, performance volatility dulling the impact on stock prices, and the consumer demand for second-tier high-end baijiu price range being the most resilient.
guolian: The fundamentals of the liquor sector in 2024Q3 have bottomed out, and the report is slowing down.
Overall, the revenue growth rate of key baijiu industry companies in 2024Q3 calculated by the method of law is 2.41%, with high-end liquor/second-tier liquor/regional liquor revenue growth rates of +9.59%/-0.38%/-15.64% respectively, each decreasing by 4.65/8.87/23.32 percentage points compared to the previous period.
Founder Securities: Proactively controlling speed to release pressure, Q3 baijiu report shows intensified differentiation.
The baijiu sector reported a slowdown in Q2, with off-season liquor companies shifting their focus to maintaining the industry price system, controlling inventory to support prices and maintaining healthy circulation channels. It is expected that the Q3 and Q4 financial reports will continue the trend of risk release.
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