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Tianfeng: The inventory cycle of Energy exploitation may reach its turning point before the production capacity turning point.
The refining products and coke products in the midstream are at the tail end of active destocking, and are expected to enter a state of passive destocking in 2025, increasing the probability of price increases.
Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ): Currently, the PDH capacity is 0.9 million tons per year, and imported propane exceeds 1 million tons per year.
On December 31, Gelonghui reported that Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the company's current PDH capacity is 0.9 million tons/year, and it imports more than 1 million tons of propane/year. The company has established a relatively complete raw material procurement mechanism and internal coordination system, and over the years has accumulated rich experience in Global procurement, making decisions focused on maximizing benefits to reduce the company's raw material procurement costs.
Research Reports Mining丨CICC: Reduction of ethane import tariffs is expected to maintain Satellite Chemical's cost advantages.
China International Capital Corporation's Research Reports indicate that the import tariff on ethane has been reduced, and the policy encourages the development of the light hydrocarbon route. Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) currently has a capacity of 2.5 million tons of ethylene, corresponding to approximately 3 million tons of imported ethane. Based on the average price of USA ethane in 2023 at 24 cents per gallon, a 1% reduction in the import tariff would save the company about 0.1 billion yuan annually on the cost side. Recently, Brent oil prices have fluctuated around 70-75 dollars per barrel, while USA ethane prices have risen to above 25 cents per gallon. However, our calculations indicate that the profit from domestic ethane cracking still has an advantage of over 2,000 yuan per ton compared to naphtha cracking. Bullish on ethane.
China Galaxy Securities: Oil prices remain stable, focusing on the growth of the petrochemical sector.
Currently, the petrochemical industry has a high level of ongoing projects. As the effects of policy stimulus gradually become evident, end consumer demand may see some improvement, but the industry's existing capacity and ongoing capacity will still require time to be digested.
Founder Securities: The reversal of the chemical industry is likely near, Bullish on the opportunities for layout on the left side of the cycle.
The Global economy in the Industry has been in a downturn and has dragged on until now, with high prices of oil and coal causing profits in the industry to shift upstream, and the profitability level of bulk chemicals has reached a historical low.
What Does Satellite Chemical Co.,Ltd.'s (SZSE:002648) Share Price Indicate?
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