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Minsheng Securities: Pig prices continue to fluctuate in the high prosperity range, waiting for positive transmission in the post-cycle.
The number of newborn piglets has a turning point since October 2023. Pushing back six months means that April 2024 will mark the turning point for the number of pigs slaughtered, with later pig supply pressures easing month by month.
How to deal with the strong reality and weak expectations of pork prices according to Changjiang Securities?
Pork prices are showing strong present reality and weak expectations. A comprehensive analysis of capacity digestion, second-child policy, and pressure from raising pigs, this round of price increase is mainly driven by supply and demand relationship.
Swhy Research: Pig prices hit new highs, grasp the profits of livestock and poultry breeding, pay attention to the bottom of the industry and the transformation of seed industry.
Under weak demand and expectations, Swhy research believes that the supply side has a "expectation gap" which is the core reason for the strong performance of pig prices in this round, exceeding the main expectations of the industry and the market.
Currently, Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) has exceeded some production indicators such as PSY and daily weight gain compared to the pre-ASF level.
Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform on August 13th that some production indicators such as PSY and daily weight gain have exceeded the pre-african swine fever level, but there is still some room for improvement in overall survival rate. The company will further strengthen health and production management to gradually improve all production indicators.
Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) sold commodity pigs with an average weight of around 120kg from January to July 2024.
Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) stated on the investor platform on August 13th that the average weight of the company's commodity pigs sold from January to July 2024 is around 120kg.
Open Source Securities: Pig prices start to rise rapidly, and the supply of live pigs is expected to continue to be tight in the fourth quarter.
During the hot season from July to August, the consumption of fat pigs is low, but there is still a high premium for fat pigs reflecting the tight supply of market hogs. It is expected that in the future market, as the temperature gradually decreases and the premium for fat pigs drives up, the average weight of market hogs may gradually increase.
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