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The "cold winter" is not over yet! Industry worries: lithium prices are still difficult to achieve a significant rebound this year.
① After experiencing two years of cyclical adjustments, many industry insiders predict that Lithium prices may still face challenges in 2025; ② With the ongoing surplus in Lithium supply, and the possibility that some mines might restart if prices rise, it means that this Battery Metal may still be unlikely to see a significant rebound this year.
The risk of oversupply is hard to diminish. Analysts say that lithium prices are more likely to fall than to rise this year.
The stubborn elasticity of lithium supply remains an obstacle to recovery.
Stubbornly Resilient Lithium Supply Remains Hurdle to Recovery
[Brokerage Focus] Goldman Sachs: China’s subsidy policy for the Smart Phone Industry supports growth, paying attention to related supply chain companies.
Jinwu Finance | Goldman Sachs released a research report on China's Smart Phone industry on January 4, 2025. The report pointed out that the National Development and Reform Commission of China announced on January 3 that it will expand the scope of national subsidies in 2025 to cover Smart Phones, tablets, and smartwatches. Previously, local governments had already launched Smart Phone subsidy policies ranging from 10% to 20% in 2024. Goldman Sachs expects that national subsidies will cover more Consumers, thereby boosting recent market demand, although the long-term product cycle still relies on technological upgrades (such as 6G in 2030) or design changes (such as foldable Smart Phones).
Hong Kong stocks moved differently | The mobile Industry Chain rose broadly in the morning as the national subsidies for Consumer Electronics were implemented, and Institutions are Bullish on the demand for Smart Phone upgrades.
The smartphone Industry Chain saw a broad increase in the early market. As of the time of writing, AAC TECH (02018) rose by 3.57%, trading at 39.15 HKD; Sunny Optical (02382) increased by 3.23%, priced at 68.8 HKD; BYD Electronics (00285) rose by 3.19%, trading at 42.1 HKD.
Zhaoyin International: The National Development and Reform Commission announced the expansion of the national subsidy program categories, and XIAOMI-W (01810) and others will benefit.
CMB International believes that the announcement of the national subsidy will encourage Other provinces to accelerate the implementation of policies, which will boost the overall demand for Smart Phone replacements in the short term.